IMF projects Nigeria’s inflation to average 26.5% in 2025

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Nigeria’s headline inflation will average 26.5% in 2025, following a recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

However, the current Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) forecasts the inflation rate to cool to 15 per cent in 2025.

Nigeria’s inflation rate saw a decline to 24.48 percent from 33.2 percent in December 2024 after the change in methodology. In February, it saw a further moderation to 23.18 percent on track for a rate cut by the Monetary Policy Committee, according to analysts.

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In a turn of events, March inflation printed higher a 24.23 per cent, the first increase since the change in methodology.

The fund projects a further spike to 37.0 per cent in 2026.

This forecast is contained in the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook (WEO), which paints a cautious picture of Nigeria’s macroeconomic prospects amid reform-driven adjustments and external volatility. Despite a temporary slowdown in inflation, the Fund warns that price stability remains elusive.

Eniola Olatunji

Eniola Olatunji is an experienced journalist at BusinessDay, where she has specialized in reporting on personal and business finance since March 2022. She focuses on creating engaging and precise news stories, with a keen emphasis on the fixed-income market, banking, personal finance, cost of living, and the Nigerian economy. Her work also encompasses extensive market research and economic trend analysis. Eniola is passionate about empowering individuals to make informed financial decisions and is dedicated to shedding light on the intricate workings of the economy. She holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Pure & Applied Chemistry from the University of Lagos. Eniola Olatunji was shortlisted for The Future Awards Africa Prize for Journalism..