Global shipping disruptions lift Africa’s ports, trade outlook

A new joint report by the African Union and the African Development Bank projects that some African economies could record short-term gains from ongoing global shipping disruptions, even as broader risks mount.

The report noted that current global shocks are transmitting faster and through more concentrated channels than previous crises, leaving African economies with limited time to adjust. The effects are already filtering through to households and businesses, highlighting the need for swift and coordinated policy responses.

“While the conflict is generating broad economic risks for Africa, a few countries may see short-term gains through higher commodity prices, trade diversion and rerouted logistics,” the report said.

Winners from rerouted trade

Nigeria is expected to benefit from higher oil prices and increased exports from the Dangote Refinery, while Mozambique could gain from renewed momentum in Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and increased traffic through the Port of Maputo.

Key maritime hubs are also seeing upside. South Africa’s Durban port, Walvis Bay in Namibia and Mauritius are benefiting from shipping rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, boosting port activity, bunkering and maritime services.

In East Africa, Kenya is strengthening its position as a logistics hub through Lamu Port and Nairobi, while Ethiopia is leveraging its strategic role as an emergency air bridge linking Asia, Africa and Europe via Ethiopian Airlines.

“These gains, however, are likely to be uneven and may not offset the broader inflationary, fiscal, and food security pressures affecting the continent,” the report warned.

Oil shock and supply chain risks

The ongoing Middle East conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran, which began in late February, has pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel. Disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly a fifth of global oil supply passes—have heightened fears of prolonged supply constraints.

For many African economies reliant on imported refined fuel, the impact has been immediate. Rising pump prices are feeding higher transport, food, and production costs, threatening to reverse recent disinflation gains and eroding consumer purchasing power.

Growth risks persist

The report warns that the conflict poses a significant downside risk to Africa’s growth outlook. If it persists beyond six months, the continent’s GDP growth could decline by at least 0.2 percentage points this year.

Before the conflict, Africa’s economy was projected to grow by 4.0 percent in 2026 and 4.1 percent in 2027, following 3.9 percent in 2025, according to the United Nations.

“The extent of the impact will vary depending on import dependency, exposure to the Middle East and global market conditions. The longer the disruption lasts, the greater the risk of a significant slowdown,” the report said.

Geopolitical and humanitarian implications

Beyond economic risks, the crisis could intensify geopolitical competition across Africa, with global powers, including the United States, China, Russia, Iran and Gulf states, deepening their strategic engagement.

Fragile states, such as Sudan, Somalia, and Libya—already affected by external influence and conflict—could face heightened instability, particularly around ports, critical minerals, and Red Sea security.

Humanitarian risks are also rising. Increased logistics costs could worsen conditions in the Horn of Africa, while shifting donor priorities toward military spending may further constrain development financing.

Policy response and reform agenda

The report calls for immediate policy action to cushion households and stabilise fuel, food, and fertiliser supply, supported by governments, development partners, and the private sector.

In the medium term, reforms should focus on strengthening energy security, expanding targeted social protection and deepening intra-African trade through the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Long-term priorities include strengthening domestic resource mobilisation, deepening capital markets and scaling innovative financing tools, such as diaspora bonds and blended finance, alongside reforms to Africa’s financial architecture.

“As global crises multiply, Africa’s response must evolve from managing shocks to building resilience,” said Sidi Ould Tah, president of the African Development Bank Group. “African institutions and development partners must act swiftly and in coordination to cushion short-term shocks while laying the foundation for long-term stability.”