The optimism in the headline numbers Nigeria’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.4 points in November 2025, marking the twelfth consecutive month of growth, while real GDP grew by 3.98% year-on-year in Q3 2025. Policymakers cite these figures as proof that difficult reforms are yielding results. Yet Nigeria may be experiencing a rebound, not necessarily a recovery. Growth is rising, but productivity is not. The optimism in the headline numbers Nigeria’s composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 56.4 points in November 2025, marking the twelfth consecutive month of growth, while real GDP grew by 3.98% year-on-year in Q3 2025. Policymakers cite these figures as proof that difficult reforms are yielding results. Yet Nigeria may be experiencing a rebound, not necessarily a recovery. Growth is rising, but productivity is not.