Nigeria’s crude oil production is projected to average about 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, marginally above its OPEC quota, but prospects of sustaining output above two million bpd remain slim, constrained less by reserves or capacity than by oil theft, pipeline vandalism and weak Niger Delta security, according to SBM Intelligence.
In its oil and energy sector outlook, SBM described the recovery as fragile and incremental rather than transformational. While recent improvements in pipeline availability and export-route security
