Ogun 2027: Equity, leadership and the rising case for Ogun West

The Greek philosopher Aristotle once described human beings as political animals, arguing that participation in public affairs is intrinsic to the organisation of society. While individuals may express varying levels of interest in politics, political leadership shapes almost every dimension of collective life, from economic opportunity and social development to public welfare and institutional stability.

For this reason, the era when citizens could afford to leave leadership selection entirely to a narrow circle of political actors is gradually fading. Across Nigeria, there is growing awareness that governance outcomes are directly linked to the quality of leadership and the fairness of the systems through which leaders emerge.

As the 2027 electoral cycle comes into view, similar conversations are shaping the political landscape of Ogun State. At the centre of those conversations lies a question that has lingered for decades: when will Ogun West produce the governor of Ogun State?

Since the creation of Ogun State in 1976, the governorship has largely rotated between the Ogun Central and Ogun East senatorial districts. Leaders such as Chief Olabisi Onabanjo, Chief Olusegun Osoba, Otunba Gbenga Daniel, Senator Ibikunle Amosun and the incumbent governor, Prince Dapo Abiodun, all emerged from these two political blocs.

The Ogun West axis, historically known as the Egbado or Yewa region, has remained a vital contributor to the political, economic and cultural development of the state. Despite its demographic strength, strategic geographic location, and growing political influence, the district has never produced the state governor.

The Egbado or Yewa people have a long and distinguished history in Ogun State and the broader Yoruba nation. From contributing to trade and agriculture along critical border and riverine routes to producing leaders, educators, and civil servants who helped shape the modern state, their influence has been both enduring and foundational. Historically, they played pivotal roles in defending territorial integrity and facilitating commerce between Lagos, Abeokuta, and neighbouring regions, often acting as intermediaries in political and economic networks that spanned Western Nigeria and beyond. Yet despite these substantial contributions, the political leadership of Ogun State has largely overlooked their aspirations at the gubernatorial level, creating a structural imbalance that has persisted for more than five decades.

This reality becomes even more striking when one considers the region’s strategic importance. Ogun West comprises several politically vibrant local governments, including Yewa North, Yewa South, Ipokia, Imeko-Afon and Ado-Odo/Ota, an economic gateway that connects Ogun State to Lagos and the Republic of Benin. With its rapidly expanding industrial base and cross-border commercial activity, the district is part of one of the state’s most economically dynamic corridors.

Over the years, several aspirants from the region have made determined efforts to break this historical pattern. One of the most persistent contenders has been Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, who contested the governorship on multiple occasions under different political platforms. Although those attempts demonstrated the region’s political aspirations, they also highlighted the structural imbalance that has characterised leadership rotation in the state.

Today, the issue is no longer merely about political ambition. It has evolved into a broader conversation about equity, inclusion and the psychology of belonging within a democratic system.

Politics, when stripped of campaign rhetoric, is fundamentally about balance, geographical balance, ethnic balance and psychological balance among competing interests within a federation or state. When that balance is absent for extended periods, the sense of belonging among certain constituencies inevitably weakens.

In diverse societies, inclusion is not merely symbolic; it is stabilising. It reassures citizens that leadership is attainable within the system regardless of their regional identity.

From this perspective, the argument for an Ogun West governor in 2027 is not simply emotional or regional. It is structural and strategic. Allowing the next governor to emerge from the Yewa/Egbado axis would send a powerful signal that the political architecture of Ogun State remains open, fair and inclusive.

Such a development would strengthen the social contract among the various blocs that make up the state and deepen public confidence in the democratic process.

It could also become one of Governor Dapo Abiodun’s defining legacies, whose administration has consistently emphasised balanced infrastructure development and economic expansion across the state.

Encouragingly, Ogun West is not lacking in credible leadership. Several respected figures in the district have the experience, visibility, and political capital to aspire to the governorship. Among those frequently mentioned in political discussions are Gboyega Nasir Isiaka, Adekunle Akinlade, Abiodun Isiaq Akinlade, Noimot Salako-Oyedele and Senator Olamilekan Solomon Adeola.

Each brings distinct professional and political strengths to the evolving conversation.

Among them, however, Senator Olamilekan Solomon Adeola, popularly known as Yayi, has drawn particular attention because of the depth of his legislative experience and his expanding national political profile.

Currently representing Ogun West in the Senate, Adeola previously served multiple terms in the House of Representatives, where he chaired key committees dealing with public accounts and financial oversight. Over time, he has built a reputation around fiscal scrutiny, legislative activism and sustained grassroots engagement.

His long career in the National Assembly has given him a deep understanding of governance structures, fiscal management, and public accountability, competencies that are increasingly essential for states navigating complex economic realities.

Adeola’s political journey also reflects consistent alignment within Nigeria’s progressive political tradition, from the Alliance for Democracy through the Action Congress to the emergence of the All Progressives Congress. This trajectory has often led observers to situate him within what may be described as the Tinubu political school, a governance approach that combines coalition-building, grassroots mobilisation, and disciplined political organisation.

Within Nigeria’s evolving political ecosystem, alignment with an established reform-oriented political structure often provides a strategic advantage for governance. The progressive political tradition that shaped modern Lagos, under the influence of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has produced a generation of leaders trained in institutional development, fiscal discipline and coalition politics. For observers of Ogun’s political trajectory, the emergence of a governorship aspirant from Ogun West with close familiarity with that governance culture introduces an interesting dynamic into the 2027 conversation. It raises the possibility that Ogun State could benefit from a leadership style shaped by similar organisational discipline and development-driven political thinking.

The relevance of such experience becomes particularly important when viewed against Ogun State’s economic future. Positioned at the gateway to Nigeria’s most dynamic commercial corridor, the state requires leadership capable of navigating industrial expansion, fiscal complexity and regional competitiveness.

Yet even as the equity argument grows stronger, one principle must remain central: equity may open the door, but competence must ultimately walk through it.

The case for Ogun West would gain broader statewide acceptance only if the candidate presented a combination of regional legitimacy, administrative capability, and cross-district appeal. Ogun voters are increasingly discerning; identity alone no longer guarantees electoral success.

The next governor must possess a clear development vision, the ability to manage complex public finances and the leadership capacity to unify the diverse constituencies that make up the state.

In that sense, the 2027 governorship election represents more than a routine political transition. It offers Ogun State an opportunity to strengthen both its democratic maturity and its political balance.

Allowing Ogun West to produce the next governor would not simply correct a historical imbalance. It would reinforce a deeper democratic principle: that leadership in a modern society must be both inclusive and merit-driven.

In politics, timing often determines destiny. For the people of Ogun West, that moment may finally be approaching.

But history reminds us that political opportunity alone does not produce leadership. It is visionary, competent and courageous individuals who transform opportunities into progress.

And ultimately, leadership, true leadership, is not merely about occupying power. It is about uplifting people, strengthening institutions and leaving behind a legacy that expands the possibilities of those who come after.

Babs Olugbemi, FCCA, is the Chief Vision Officer at Mentoras Leadership Limited and the founder of Positive Growth Africa. He can be reached at [email protected] or 07064176953 or on Twitter @SuccessBabs.