A new global map is being drawn — Where does Nigeria stand?

The 2026 World Economic Forum (WEF) Annual Meeting in Davos ended without a reassuring sense of global stability. Instead, it shed light on how the world has changed. Now the world is defined by fractured alliances, weaponised trade, selective capital flows, and growing distrust among traditional partners. For Nigeria, Africa’s fourth-largest economy and one of the world’s most complex emerging markets, the implications of this global reordering are most likely to hit the country immediately.

Despite the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue,” Davos 2026 did not manage to reflect its ambitious highlight. Even an impressive list of attendees (with more than 60 heads of state and 400 political leaders from all over the world) could not save the situation. There is a little dialogue and the globalisation as we know shows the signs of decay. Harvard economist and former IMF deputy managing director Gita Gopinath warned, the world may be witnessing a “once-in-a-century breakdown of the global order”.

For Nigeria’s economy, substantially reliant on oil exports, foreign capital inflows, and imported goods, this fragmentation brings additional risks. Trade disruptions ruin supply chains and increase import costs. Tighter financial conditions limit access to foreign capital and put the naira under pressure. Yet Davos also made clear that the global economy instead of sliding into chaos, is reshaping into blocs and necessity-based partnerships. The main challenge for Nigeria in this situation is whether the country manages to adapt fast enough and gain more agency under the new circumstances. One of the plausible ways to solidify its presence on the global stage is by building purposeful and dynamic partnerships with other middle-power countries.

Davos 2026 highlighted the growing importance of these states. Countries such as India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, and Canada were actively promoting independent cooperation strategies rather than relying solely on the agendas of traditional global heavyweights.

Nigeria’s absence from these coalition-building conversations can have consequences. Despite having all the necessary characteristics (population, youthful demographics, a large regional influence, and economic potential) to succeed in trade and political influence, the country often stays aside of many opportunities. As of now, the global economic order is strongly influenced by factors outside traditional multilateral institutions. Countries that fail to secure strategic partnerships of all kinds risk being locked out of preferential markets, technology transfers, and investment pipelines.

Therefore, solidifying regional leadership is as important as ever. Nigeria’s position within ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) must move beyond symbolism toward execution. It must position itself as a key regional player, championing the AfCFTA and strengthening diplomatic ties along politics and economic borderline. Davos underscored a growing impatience among investors and policymakers for delivery rather than aspiration.

Nigeria is proving it can live up to its potential. Recent data from the Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) reveals that Nigeria’s non-oil export performance in 2025 tells a compelling story of product strength, market reach, and strategic positioning. This steady transition from exporting raw commodities to embracing value-added production is the logical, long-awaited shift that will establish Nigeria as a global middle power that simply cannot be ignored.

This diversification gives the countries more agency. Recent years have shown, and Davos highlighted, the struggle to convert natural wealth into sustainable influence can become a multilayered long-lasting problem. Nigeria’s expanding non-oil export base builds economic resilience, broadens foreign exchange earnings, and enhances its credibility as a diversified trade partner. It also positions the country to engage more confidently with emerging partners in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America. These are regions where targeted coalitions around food security, manufacturing, digital infrastructure, and energy transition could yield tangible gains.

Energy security emerged as another defining theme for 2026. International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol described energy security as national security, noting that risks have multiplied at an unprecedented pace. For Nigeria, this is a paradoxical challenge. Despite vast oil and gas reserves, the country still grapples with fuel shortages, unreliable power supply, and infrastructure bottlenecks that undermine competitiveness.

During 2026, we will keep seeing that capital is actively moving toward gas and clean energy projects. Regulatory clarity and policy consistency play a leading role in success of such endeavors. Again, for Nigeria it is a golden opportunity which the country must not miss. Nigeria is standing at a strategic crossroads: its vast gas reserves and immense renewable potential offer a golden opportunity, provided there is a fundamental shift in governance. For the industry to attract the necessary investment, regulatory clarity and transparent execution must become the new standard.

At Davos, it has been stressed that “capital flows with trust, not just potential”. Without credible policies, bankable projects, and transparent institutions unlocking climate finance (or any other promising sector) is impossible.

Institutional credibility, in fact, may be Nigeria’s most critical lever for emerging as a middle power. As IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva warned, many developing countries now spend more on debt servicing than on healthcare or education—effectively “defaulting on development.” Nigeria exemplifies this dilemma, with public debt exceeding ₦150 trillion and debt service consuming a growing share of revenues. While borrowing money isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it becomes a dangerous trap if it isn’t used to build something productive for the future.

To be taken seriously in global forums, Nigeria must align diplomatic ambition with domestic reform, credible fiscal discipline, improved revenue mobilisation, regulatory clarity, and faster project delivery. Middle powers earn influence through trust, and trust is built through consistent policy execution.
Technology and artificial intelligence further sharpen the stakes. IMF estimates suggest that up to 40 percent of global jobs will be affected by AI, with even higher exposure in advanced economies. For Nigeria’s young and rapidly growing population, AI presents both an opportunity to leapfrog development constraints and a risk of widening inequality if skills and infrastructure lag.

Ultimately, the lesson from Davis and into the entire 2026 is that the world becomes more unstable, selective, and corporations now pursue more immediate gains. While short-term economic wins might hold more weight than old trade ties right now, nothing truly moves forward without long-term transparency and the drive to actually get things done.

For Nigeria, standing still is no longer an option. The country’s recent gains in export diversification, its regional leadership, and its demographic potential provide a foundation. The challenge now is strategic clarity. The country must turn potential into power, reform into credibility, and regional influence into global leverage. In a fragmented global economy, Nigeria’s future standing will depend not on its size alone, but on its ability to act deliberately, decisively, and consistently in a world that will not wait.

– Rahaman Abiola is a Nigerian journalist, and editor-in-chief of LEGIT.ng .