University completion rate drops globally – UNESCO

Even though the rate at which people now participate in university education has increased significantly, not many who enter eventually complete their course. The finding is from UNESCO’s Global Education Monitoring (GEM) report published in March 2026.

The gap between the number of students entering higher education and those who earn a degree is widening, the report revealed.

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It shows a significant “dropout issue” as graduation rates fail to keep pace with the global spike in university enrolment.

The 2026 GEM report reveals that global educational progress has stalled, with one in six children currently excluded from school. This crisis is most severe in sub-Saharan Africa, where rapid population growth continues to outpace the expansion of educational infrastructure.

In addition, it says that more than one in six children now live in conflict-affected zones. In regions like the Middle East, ongoing tensions have forced widespread school closures, leaving millions of additional children at risk of falling behind, a reality that often exceeds official statistics.

Despite these significant setbacks, the report documents remarkable achievements in several nations over the past quarter-century. Since 2000, countries such as Madagascar, Togo, Morocco, Viet Nam, Georgia, and Türkiye have successfully reduced their out-of-school rates by at least 80 percent across various age groups. Additionally, Côte d’Ivoire has made substantial strides by halving its out-of-school population for children, adolescents, and youth alike.

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The participation boom
Over the last 25 years, the global gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education has more than doubled, rising from 19 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2024.

The most dramatic growth occurred in East and Southeast Asia, where the ratio quadrupled from 16 percent to 63 percent in the same period.

However, the global graduation rate increased at less than half that speed. The ratio of students completing their first degree rose from 17 percent in 2000 to only 27 percent in 2024. This discrepancy confirms “the assumption that there is a considerable dropout issue in tertiary education,” the report states.

Regional challenges and successes

The analysis highlights high dropout rates within the first year of study:

High-income countries: Australia, Denmark, Iceland, Slovenia, and Poland all see first-year dropout rates of 15 percent or higher.

Latin America: In Brazil, Colombia, and Peru, more than 20 percent of students leave within their first year.

In contrast, the report cites China as a notable exception. Enrolment in China surged from 7 percent in 1999 to 77 percent in 2024, yet the country has largely avoided the completion crisis seen elsewhere. Most Chinese students finish their degrees without significant delays, a feat the report describes as “remarkable,” given the inclusion of many students from disadvantaged backgrounds.

“At the current rate of expansion, China will exceed the high-income country average for gross enrolment in 2028,” the report predicts.

Improving metrics
UNESCO urges countries, including Nigeria, to look beyond simple enrolment figures when setting education targets. Current measures, such as those used for the UN Sustainable Development Goals, can be misleading.

For instance, enrolment ratios can appear inflated in countries with longer course durations or if students are enrolled in two programmes simultaneously.

The report concludes that more individualised data is required to track how long students take to graduate. Also, monitoring must evolve to account for the increasing popularity of distance and online learning.