Upping the ante of Nigeria's gas ambition (part 2)

This is the second and final part of the article meant to throw a challenge to the implementing agencies of Nigeria’s Decade of Gas (DoG) initiative. It is gratifying to note that after the initial anemic implementation of the programme, the last 30 months since the inception of the Tinubu Administration has witnessed a significant turnaround in the implementation of the ten-year initiative. This is certainly the result of the synergy achieved by the implementation agencies of the Decade of Gas initiative, namely the Office of the Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), the Office of the Special Adviser to the President on Energy, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) and the Decade of Gas Secretariat; and in addition, the critical mass of talented professionals in the oil and gas sector. My advocacy has in no way been presumptuous. I do recognise and have a great deal of respect for the tremendous executive capacity that exists in the Nigerian oil and gas industry. However, the implementation of the DoG initiative has hitherto been hampered essentially by lack of political will and a scanty and poorly communicated conceptual framework and an implementation framework that was not sufficiently transparent and responsive to the demands of various stakeholders in a matter as vital a decade long development plan for the Nigerian gas sector.

It was therefore not a surprise that diverse concerns have been expressed about the DoG initiative by numerous stakeholders including energy correspondents and local and international NGOs. On August 14, 2023, the African Initiative for Transparency, Accountability and Responsible Leadership (AfriTAL) and the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI0, an international NGO, jointly organised a policy dialogue on the Decade of Gas plan and addressed transparency and implementation challenges faced by the policy. In June 2024, fourteen local and international NGOs, including the two mentioned above addressed to the DoG Secretariat an “Open Letter Calling for Detailed Action Plans on Nigeria’s Decade of Gas Policy,” in which they raised diverse issues including a comprehensive action plan for implementing the DoG, monitoring and accountability issues, methane gas abatement and decarbonisation. To address these concerns, government has recently established the Decade of Gas Sponsors Group to promote alignment and accountability as the principal governance and coordination body – according to the Minister of State Petroleum Resources (Gas), Mr. Ekperikpe Ekpo.

Impressive achievements have been recorded in the implementation of the Decade of Gas initiative in the last 30 months. They include the following:

• According to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NUPRC), Nigeria’s gas production increased from 6.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) in 2023 to 7.5. bcf/d) in 2025.

• Gas flaring reduced to 7.16% in mid-2025 from 7.55% in 2024, despite increase in production; and NUPRC aims to end gas flaring by 2030 through initiatives like the Nigeria Flair Commercialisation Programme.

• The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has reviewed 215 gas utilisation projects, targeting investments worth $20 billion and has identified 70 of the 215 projects as top priority, with a demand potential of 15 billion standard cubic feet per day.

• Within just 18 months of the present Administration, projects with value exceeding $8 billion were unlocked.

• Recent final investment decisions (FID) in the Nigerian gas sector include the $2 billion Shell HI development, the Ubeta gas project and the $5 billion Bonga North deepwater project.

• Fiscal reforms delivered competitive incentives across the value chain.

• Numerous tax waivers were given for clean energy solutions, such as for CNG, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), electric vehicle, and LNG processing and distribution.

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• Nigeria LNG Stream 7 project has achieved 88% completion rate as of late 2025; and also secured feedstock supply via the recent signing of a 20-year gas supply agreement with six upstream producers.

• The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Gas Infrastructure Fund (NMDGIF) has of late 2025 accumulated about $500 million dollars of funding, out of which N287 billion was disbursed to 16 companies for gas infrastructure projects.

• Local production of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) or cooking gas is now nearly 80%; 5 million LPG cylinders have been distributed and VAT has been removed on LPG.

• ANOH Gas Processing Plant and Pipeline achieved first gas in January 2026, supplying gas to the Indorama Petrochemical Plant, with further expansion to the OB3 pipeline.

• Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3), a major 127-kilometer ((km) 48-inch diameter pipeline connecting East and West networks is nearing completion.

• The 614-km, $2.8 billion Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano gas pipeline achieved 100% completion by December 2025, setting the stage for gas industrialisation in Northern Nigeria.

The foregoing reveals significant strides in the Decade of Gas initiative in diverse areas, especially domestic adoption of gas and infrastructure development for domestic gas consumption. However, there are yet key hurdles to realising Nigeria’s gas ambition. Three of such hurdles were identified by Mr. Philip Mshelbila , immediate past Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas Company (NLNG). These are Nigeria’s inability to harness gas for power generation, low domestic gas utilization and vast untapped deepwater gas reserves. These problems are structural in nature and are gradually being addressed. The gas infrastructure projects referred to above will immensely aid increased supply of gas to thermal power plants, so will cost-reflective tariffs and market-based pricings for gas. The current programme to issue bonds by the Federal Government to the tune of N4 trillion to offset verified debts to gas companies will go a long way to improve their liquidity and investment in more gas production for gas to power plants. A number of the achievements in pipeline infrastructure development will expand household adoption of gas consumption and for industrialisation. We are already seeing deals like the $2 billion Shell HI deepwater gas FID. With more encouraging fiscal incentives by the Tinubu Administration, more of such deepwater gas deals will be unlocked.

Mr. Mshelbila also emphasised performance as the key strategy to attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into the gas sector. “When people see performance, they invest. That’s how countries like the U.S. and Qatar have succeeded, not through marketing, but delivery.” He pointed out that Nigeria and Qatar started the LNG race at about the same time 30 years ago, “but while Nigeria is now reaching 30 metric tons per annum (mtpa), Qatar is targeting over 140 mtpa.” “That’s the scale of possibility we must be aiming for,” he advised.

Thus, while Nigeria is gradually addressing the challenges of domestic gas utilization through investment in gas pipeline infrastructure, in the export sector, a great deal more needs to be done to expand our liquefaction capacity two to three fold in the next ten years. If Qatar, a small Persian Gulf state of 3.2 million people produces five times more liquefied natural gas (LNG) than Nigeria within a time frame of 30 years, we must do all in our powers to bridge the gap as much as possible. Gas will still be in high demand globally till 2060, decarbonisation notwithstanding. We must invest massively and aggressively now to greatly expand our gas exports by LNG and pipelines, but LNG is the quicker route. Thus, Nigeria must embark on more LNG projects. Our gas sector is grossly under-developed as we currently produce 1% to 1.5% of our proven natural gas reserves of over 210 trillion standard cubic feet (tscf). Nigeria is twice as rich in gas as in crude oil. Nigeria needs to redraw a new and much bolder 10-year gas development plan terminating in year 2035. Sound public policy, not money, is the most potent tool for national development. Let’s mobilise it for our gas ambition.

• Mr. Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos