Gas shortfall slashes power generation to 4,300MW

Nigeria’s electricity generation has fallen to an average of 4,300 megawatts (MW) after gas supply to thermal power plants dropped to less than half of required volumes, deepening supply shortages and forcing load shedding across the national grid.

The Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) said in a statement on Thursday that inadequate gas deliveries to generation companies are primarily responsible for the reduced output.

Thermal plants, which account for the bulk of Nigeria’s generation mix, require an estimated 1,629.75 million standard cubic feet (MMSCF) of gas per day to operate at optimal capacity.

However, as of February 23, 2026, actual gas supply stood at approximately 692 MMSCF per day, representing less than 43 percent of daily requirements.

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The shortfall of about 937 MMSCF per day has sharply constrained available generation capacity, directly reducing the volume of electricity dispatched to Distribution Companies (DisCos).

Energy allocation to DisCos, NISO clarified, reflects the reduced supply on the grid rather than discretionary curtailment.

“With thermal plants forming the dominant share of Nigeria’s generation mix, any disruption in gas supply directly impacts grid output,” the system operator said.

Nigeria’s power sector remains heavily dependent on gas-fired plants, which account for over 70 percent of installed capacity. This structural reliance means disruptions in gas production, pipeline constraints, vandalism, or payment bottlenecks between GenCos and gas suppliers quickly translate into lower generation and nationwide blackouts.

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NISO said that when total system generation drops significantly, it is required to implement load shedding to safeguard grid stability and prevent system disturbances.

Available energy is dispatched in line with the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO) allocation framework across all distribution networks.

The latest drop in generation comes at a time when businesses and households are already contending with high energy costs and weak supply reliability. Analysts say the development reinforces long-standing concerns about the fragile coordination between Nigeria’s gas and power value chains.

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Despite reforms aimed at improving market liquidity and strengthening contractual discipline between gas suppliers and power producers, recurring shortfalls persist, exposing systemic vulnerabilities in fuel supply, infrastructure, and payment structures.

NISO said it is working with relevant stakeholders to improve gas availability and restore generation capacity, while expressing regret over the inconvenience to consumers and market participants.