For the sake of Nigeria!

It is probably well-known that I was one of the minority Nigerians who may not have been convinced about the prospects of a Buhari presidency. In my personal capacity as a newspaper columnist, blogger and public commentator and official role as a policy, economic and strategy consultant who runs an advisory firm, I retained some reservations about Buhari’s antecedents and suitability for Nigeria’s presidency. Yet even now I am deeply concerned about the inertia with which the much-anticipated administration of President Muhammadu Buhari has taken off (or actually failed to take off!). Exactly four years ago, I wrote a column, “Jonathan’s first month”, in which I complained that Jonathan made “only” two appointments – Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Anyim Pius Anyim and National Security Adviser (NSA) late Andrew Owoye Azazi – on the first day of his elected term! The former president also nominated most of his ministers within 30 days of inauguration. Thirty days later, Buhari is yet to appoint an SGF, NSA or Chief of Staff, and hints are being dropped that ministers may not be named till September!

As I write, I’m staring at the front page of BusinessDay of Monday, June 29, 2015 (exactly a month after Buhari’s inauguration) carrying a sad headline, “Buhari euphoria fades one month in as investors await direction”. For a newspaper which was very positive about the “change” scenario, this is a shocking turn of events! Also in my line of vision is back page of THISDAY where Waziri Adio (a prominent APC media pundit who provided intellectual support for the Buhari candidacy) presented a less-than-enthusiastic “preliminary appraisal” on “Buhari’s First Month”. Several other pro-Buhari intellectuals may also have taken first steps towards mitigating emerging risk of their very enthusiastic endorsement of the president – Pat Utomi has warned about their change being “hijacked”; Dele Momodu has already written a worried memo to Buhari; Simon Kolawole wants to be woken up when the nightmare is over; and Okey Ndibe has spoken of a disappearing presidency! Virtually all major newspapers have written editorials urging articulation of a policy agenda and appointment of key officers.

My suggestion is that next time we should ensure candidates define their policy intent in public, in their own words, before they are elected instead of lamenting their failure to do so after we have already voted them in! That, I suppose, is the normal practice in a democracy. In “Themes from the 2015 elections” published on April 22, 2015, right after the elections, I wondered whether the media performed its role of placing the candidates’ policies, capabilities and competences before the voters: “With regard to conventional media, academics may have to examine whether it acted as an activist and vanguard media, scrutinizing the candidates and issues on the basis of national interest or as mechanisms of propaganda.” Beyond the media, what of our business and professional elite, and economists who were expected to leverage the elections as an opportunity to compel all candidates to articulate their policy focus? I complained in “The contest for Abuja (5): Policy implications” published on March 5, 2015 about “the surprising lack of analysis of the policy content of the choices Nigeria faces in the presidential contest later this month”, arguing that “While slogans and conventional wisdom may be sufficient for others, managers, businesses, business groups, investors and other enlightened stakeholder groups are expected to engage the candidates and political parties on the basis of policy and platform.”

Unfortunately, there is nothing to be gained from gloating “I told you so” because our country is not in a good place – as BusinessDay asserts, the change euphoria is dissipating; economic confidence is eroding; capital markets are falling and currency pressures are intensifying again; government may be drifting and uncoordinated; if Greece defaults, global economic conditions may worsen; and because nature, especially in relation to political power, abhors a vacuum, power struggles are intensifying within the ruling party, parliament and security establishment (the Department of State Security and the president’s ADC have started a fierce turf battle; the National Assembly is sharply polarised and – hopefully, temporarily – dysfunctional; and the APC’s internal cohesion has been severely damaged) with the high hopes of citizens, investors, markets and the international community fading fast! We need concerted action to reverse this trend and restore the moment of opportunity that the 2015 elections were supposed to offer our nation. The nation faces huge economic challenges but also opportunities for a new direction which, if we seize, may provide a new national lease of life.

We have to appeal to President Buhari to take urgent steps towards appointing an SGF, CoS and NSA. Even if a cabinet may not be named immediately, it is critical that he also names some special advisers, for which he already has National Assembly approval – Chief Economic Adviser, National Assembly and Political Adviser. We also need to urge the political gladiators to de-escalate tensions arising from events in the National Assembly in the wider interest of the nation. As they say, “He who fights and runs away lives to fight another day”. Many of the political leaders involved in these battles, their constituents and the nation are over-invested in the current configuration and everyone should quietly evaluate their options and play a more reflective game next time, rather than resort to unhelpful drama. As they say, “When you’re in a hole, stop digging”!

 

Opeyemi Agbaje