Fashola and Nigeria’s electricity challenge

The Minister of Power, Works and Housing and former governor of Lagos state Mr Babatunde Raji Fashola was the subject and main attraction at the presentation of my new book, “The BRF Era: Policy and Governance in Lagos State 2007-2015”. The book was my attempt at documenting the policies, programmes and achievements of the Fashola administration in Lagos state so that others, now and in future, may learn from his efforts. The Lagos Oriental Hotel venue was filled to the brim, with many standing demonstrating Fashola’s enduring star quality and the resonance of the celebration of his much-acclaimed administration. However there was probably another reason why attendance at the event was large and enthusiastic-everyone wanted to hear about his plans for the power sector, without doubt the most problematic of his triple responsibilities.

In designing the event, I had not been persuaded by an alternate viewpoint that we invite Fashola to discuss his plans for all three of his assignments-in my view, even though all three are important or even critical, the topic most Nigerians wanted to hear “BRF” speak about was electricity hence the topic-“Nigeria’s Electricity Challenge: A Roadmap for Change”. The public response before, during and after the event overwhelmingly validated the fact that a public discussion of the electricity challenge by the minister was germane to most Nigerians.

Fashola did not disappoint! He explained the current conditions in the sector and the “roadmap” to uninterrupted power supply with such clarity and simplicity that even secondary school students would understand, and everyone left the venue very satisfied that while current electricity supply conditions are dire, there is a promise of positive change as the minister methodically implements the ideas he articulated at the lecture. Fashola pointed out that he did not take-off on the power assignment playing to the typical Nigerian gallery-with declarations that thousands of megawatts would be generated in six months; promising that all our generators would be redundant within one year; or threatening to “probe” all prior expenditure in the sector or to reverse the privatization of the power companies, all of which may have grabbed the headlines. These steps may of course have led some excitable media persons to proclaim him an “action minister!” but they probably would have done longer term damage to our electricity sector prospects.

Fashola explained the basic problem-Nigeria does not generate enough electricity! Since 1950 when the Electricity Corporation of Nigeria (ECN) precursor of NEPA and PHCN was created, the maximum power Nigeria ever generated was 5,074MW in February 2016, a sub-optimal quantity even if our power transmission and distribution infrastructure and systems were perfect, which they are not! He outlined a planned trajectory from “incremental power” to “steady power” and then “uninterrupted power” and pointed out some past errors including improper and poor quality infrastructure and workmanship, poor standards and low value-for-money, theft and vandalisation of pipelines and transformers, power theft by unmetered consumers etc.

In realizing “incremental power” Fashola explained current limitations which he intends to remedy-only about 78 turbines out of 140 in 25 gas-powered power plants are generating power due to poor maintenance and servicing and non-availability of gas. He gave examples such as Jebba Hydro commissioned in 1985, which was supposed to undergo scheduled maintenance every 5-6 years, but which was not done for 28 years until privatization; Egbin also delivered in 1985 had only 2 out of 6 turbines working at the time of privatization. All these constraints are now been rectified by the new private investors in the sector in conjunction with government. Fashola has also resolved the conflicts preventing operationalization of the Aba Geometric Power Project with 140MW ring-fenced to Aba and provided the guarantees and securities to enable take-off of the Azura Power Project in Edo which would also provide 450 MW of power. Other power projects being facilitated to deliver incremental power include Zungeru (700MW), Kaduna (210MW), Kasimbilla (400MW), Katsina (10MW wind) and Gbarain, Bayelsa (222MW). The minister also seeks to optimize gas-starved power stations including AES Lagos which could supply 240MW; Geregu 1 and 2 which could add 460MW and Omotosho and Olorunsogo which could both raise output from 160MW to 600 MW and is developing a plan for rural electricity to complete these mostly urban –directed projects.

Fashola conveyed the assurances of the Ministry of Petroleum that repairs of the damaged Forcados pipeline would be accomplished by June 2016 thus enabling a return to generating capacity of 5,000 MW. It is the damage to that critical infrastructure that is responsible for the current electricity crisis Nigerians are experiencing, so we all would eagerly hold on to that assurance.

In reaching “steady” and ultimately “uninterrupted” power, Fashola unveiled a variety of strategies-increased gas supply and availability; collaboration with the ministry of water resources to provide data on water sources and disused dams to stimulate investment in hydro power; working with the solid minerals ministry on coal-power initiatives and investments; plans to license a dozen investors to generate 1,000 MW of solar energy; facilitating the completion of 126 on-going (but stalled) transmission projects; and raising transmission capacity from 5,000MW to 20,000 MW over the next five years. Steady power will be contingent on creating not just adequate, but excess capacity to provide redundancy for repairs and maintenance, construction of the 3,000MW Mambilla Hydropower Project and accurate data on population, energy consumption especially by initial target users in education, health and industry.

He advocated sustainability in every element of the sector-financial sustainability as consumers and government pays their electricity bills; energy conservation as consumers adopt energy saving initiatives and new sustainable approaches in electricity usage. I am confident of Fashola’s ability, along with his colleagues in the petroleum, solid minerals, water resources and environment ministries in resolving the crisis in the power sector, but there is an intervening variable (as events of the last few days in relation to sabotage of power and oil infrastructure in the Niger-Delta demonstrate) which requires a political solution at presidential level. I do not believe a purely military approach can protect all oil and power infrastructure in the region.

 

Opeyemi Agbaje