Confronting evil in the age of terror and the herdsmen of the apocalypse

There is evidence that, at last, we may be winning the war against the insurgents. However, with the emergence of a new breed of rampaging Fulani herdsmen, we are confronted by a new species of terrorist that appears to be not only a well-armed but also highly mobile, militia. Their ultimate goal seems to be to drive people out of their land and to dispossess and colonise them. Their murderous atrocities in the Middle Belt and in the south east are raising inter-communal tensions to a frightful level.

It is a red-alert for the very existence of our nationhood. To make matters worse, the government’s response has been rather muted. And the plaintive cry that grazing lands and imported grass from Brazil will soon be provided sounds to me like appeasement for murderers. It is shameful. As far as I can see, we may well be in the maelstrom of what is, in effect, a nightmare scenario of permanent terror.

History teaches that men of evil report never get tired of perpetrating evil. They also have no iota of human compassion or pity, negating as they do the very humanity of others. They aim to poison the warm milk of human fraternity with the weapons of fear and hate. We must face up to them without fear.

In the course of my own thinking on these challenges, I came up with an approach known as the “Defensive Engagement and Reconstruction Strategy”, otherwise known as DEAREST). It is an approach based on tough love; embracing military and police action, the security apparatus, deployment of leading-edge technology and political dialogue with critical stakeholders and decision elites. The American experience in Iraq and Afghanistan makes it clear that military solutions alone will not destroy violent extremism; on the contrary, they may serve to radicalise otherwise neutral groups.

This new strategy requires that the social conditions that give rise to radical ideologies are tackled, in addition to winning the propaganda war and enhancing the capability of government to deliver social services and critical public goods. Its key elements entail elements of state building, socio-economic reconstruction and political engagement, with a focus on: (i) Prevention; (ii) Protection; (iii) Preparation; (iv) Prosecution; (v) Rehabilitation; (vi) Reconstruction; and (vii) Political Engagement.

Prevention embraces activities aimed at rooting out the social and economic conditions that breed terrorism, including the intelligence gathering activities that serve to neutralise and pre-empt terrorist activities. In pushing through the prevention agenda, we must seek to win over the hearts and minds of the youths so that they will not fall victim to terrorist propaganda.

Preparation entails developing a high level of readiness for the eventuality of a terrorist attack. This should be linked to the national system of emergency preparedness and an enhanced role for the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). We recommend the creation of an Anti-Terrorist Task Force bringing together the military, law-enforcement agencies, security services, customs and immigration officials. There should be regular drilling on quick-response measures during attacks and to reinforcing accelerated decision-making in the event of an outbreak of terrorist violence.

Protection entails taking measures to protect civilians and military targets from attacks, including protection of vital physical infrastructures. No counterterrorism strategy could ever be fool proof. What matters is to mitigate the impact of any attacks and to bolster resilience of the populace while keeping public morale high. Protection in this regard has to combine action by the military, law-enforcement and security agencies on the one hand, and engagement with civil society and community leaders on the other.

Prosecution is also vital. Failure to prosecute has been the bane of terrorism in Nigeria, with known terrorists being arrested only to be surreptitiously released unconditionally. It is only in Nigeria that people can get away with murder on this scale. This failure serves a massive incentive for potential extremists, knowing that they can kill and maim and destroy with little or no repercussions. Judicial procedures for terrorist suspects should be swift and rigorous and the burden of proof should largely be on the suspects, not on the law-enforcement agencies. At the same time a thorough investigation should be made on the flow of funds in each case and those found to have financed or aided and abetted the attacks should be prosecuted and their assets confiscated.

Punishment for terrorist crimes must be linked to a comprehensive programme of rehabilitation not only for the victims but also for the perpetrators. Rehabilitation entails provision of relief materials as well as psychological counselling. Religious de-radicalisation is essential. Such de-programming should be part and parcel of a conditional amnesty programme. In addition to rehabilitation, we advocate a programme of economic reconstruction for victim communities. Priority should be given to the nearly 2 million dispossessed IDPs who currently survive under gruelling conditions in make-shift camps.

We also believe that political engagement with key stakeholders, ruling elites, the political Opposition, civil society, traditional rulers, religious leaders and the organised private sector is essential. This entails dialogue on a national scale on how to reinvent Nigeria, rebuild our public institutions and ensure that government provides expanding opportunities for all its citizens. There must be a national dialogue on how to eschew nihilistic violence which has become an endemic part of our political culture. Ultimately, this entails hammering out a new national compact while redefining the Nigerian national project. Nigeria has to be reinvented and redesigned so as to secure a just and lasting peace among its various nationalities; tackling the root causes, which lie in the politics of exclusion, the culture of impunity, inequality, social deprivation, mass alienation and political decay.

It is important that we engage one another in sincere and open dialogue. Not too long ago, Sheikh Ahmad Abubakar Mahmud Gumi, a Kaduna-based cleric, opined that Nigerian Muslims seem unprepared to confront the truth about extremist ideologues who have taken the entire Ummah hostage. He insists that such extremists can ultimately be defeated only by Muslims. Moderates have to win the war of ideas against the radicals and those who deploy the syntax of violence and fear. The Fatwas against terrorism declared by some leading Muslim clerics should be emulated by Nigerian Muslim theologians.

We also need a new national security strategy. Several countries, notably the United States, the UK and Russia produce annual National Security Outlooks that analyse various security scenarios facing their countries while mapping out alternative courses of action. Nigeria is in dire need of a Homeland Security apparatus to keep watch over the security of public installations while intercepting weapons and thwarting any terrorist ambitions.

The lessons of the last decade make it clear that the most effective counterterrorism strategies are those that are anchored on a firm and resolute determination by purpose-driven governments to preserve the common peace while securing the lives and properties of all citizens. We must leave them in no doubt that their actions would always be countered by force and that they will be prosecuted and punished; and that those who finance them stand to lose everything. Any wavering or prevarication – any indication of appeasement – exposes the state as being weak and indecisive. However, the window of dialogue must never be foreclosed.

At the same time, government should offer the right mix of incentives to extremists who are prepared to lay down their arms. The kind of disarmament scheme that was relatively successful in the Niger Delta could also be implemented in the North when a settlement is eventually brokered. This should be linked to a social rehabilitation and a religious counselling programme of de-radicalisation. However, all foreign operatives of terror must be treated as enemy combatants. The leaderships must also be tried for war crimes and must face the ultimate punishment for their brutal killings of defenceless civilians as enshrined in International Law since the Nuremberg Trials of 1945.

For all our pains, there is a considerable knowledge and analysis gap in Nigeria on all matters relating to terrorism. We clearly need a more scientific approach. I recommend the creation of a Terrorism Study Group (CSG) that brings together a multidisciplinary team of experts in security studies, criminology, law, political science, religion, social psychology and development to apply qualitative and quantitative investigations of terrorism in all its manifestations in Nigeria. The idea is to better understand the dynamics of terrorist groups, their organisation and networks and how to effectively combat them. Terrorists captured should be subjected to rigorous debriefing so that their mind-sets are better understood. The CSG would interface with the security community, government and civil society organisations (CSOs) in crafting effective counterterrorism strategies.

On its part, government must also aim to win the hearts and minds of the youths; steering them from a culture of nihilistic violence to one of tolerance, patriotism and nonviolence. Ultimately, it is about reinventing Nigeria as a compassionate country and a purpose-driven nation. There is also an urgent need to launch a programme of massive job-creation that will provide employment for at least 10 million people over the next three years.

According to the statistics, general unemployment in Nigeria stands at 20% while youth unemployment for those within 15-25 year range hovers above 50 percent. In the north east, that figure standards at a frightful 64 percent. The right to work is a fundamental human right. It is labour that gives human beings meaning and allows them to look after themselves and their families with dignity. Where government fails to provide decent jobs, as we have recently seen in North Africa and the Arab world, the end result could be a catastrophic upheaval. Youth joblessness in Nigeria has certainly reached crisis proportions and is a direct threat to national security. As was done by President Franklin Roosevelt in the American depression of the 1930s, public works programmes in the infrastructure sector should be developed for the youths in addition to rural development schemes in the agro-allied sector. Vocational and skills training is vital and this has to be linked to education reforms to ensure that young people acquire the ability to use their brains as well as their hands in productive occupations.

Deployment of technology for electronic surveillance, including telecommunications and Internet activities is also crucial to prevention. Our security services will need to create a centre for electronic surveillance that works actively to combat and intercept vital communications by terrorist groups and their sponsors. The recent decision by the National Communications Commission (NCC) to register all mobile phone users is a step in the right direction. The problem of Nigeria’s porous borders needs to be addressed. It is vital that the authorities deploy customs and immigration and the security services to work together to ensure effective patrol of the borders, including use of security ships, helicopters and telecommunications equipment.

There is evidence that some of the people involved in terrorist activities in Nigeria have come from neighbouring countries such as Chad and Niger, with some coming from as far as Sudan and Somalia. A good number of foreign mercenaries have been known to be involved in the frequent communal killings on the Jos Plateau. Given the free movement of people under ECOWAS Protocols, the task of monitoring potential extremists entering our territory will prove to be a rather Herculean task.

Most outbreaks of violence are the direct results of intelligence failures. It goes without saying that effectively countering terrorism will require a more rigorous approach to intelligence gathering than has been the case hitherto. It is essential to infiltrate terrorist camps and to use uncommon and unconventional methods to gather sensitive intelligence information. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) should be linked to Interception of Communication Signals Intelligence (SIGNIT), using high-level technology. Network analysis should be undertaken to map out the movements and cash flow which is the life-blood of terrorism in our twenty-first century.

We need a threat-oriented intelligence gathering system that also provides robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) to detect radicalised individuals and groups and developing effective strategies to pre-empt and combat them. The existing security agencies are allocated huge budgetary resources, but there is no evidence that their work is cost-effective or commensurate with the order of magnitude of resources invested. There must therefore be a system to ensure greater accountability for results.

Over the long-term, civic education will be crucial to preventing future terrorist activities. Educational programmes in the school system and in tertiary institutions should aim to steer young people away from such vices as drugs, cultism and violence which create the mind-set that is susceptible to extremist ideologies. Young people must be taught the ideals of civic virtue and pride in being Nigerians and in promoting the ideals of tolerance and nonviolence. Governments should also engage with community leaders while mobilising citizens to commit to building a New Nigeria. We would also advocate a campaign of security awareness throughout the country, with open hot lines for people to report any security threats.

Ultimately, religious extremism is about ideas and propaganda. It is not enough to win the military argument; it is even more important to win the war of minds and hearts. This can be achievable through programmes to defeat jihadist propaganda by imposing a more sensible and more enlightened counter narrative. Radio, television and the newspapers should all be deployed to preach a new idiom of moderation. The security services should continually scan the Internet and ensure a regime of notice and take down (NTD) is imposed on extremist religious literature targeting Nigeria.

Nigeria is also in dire need of a Homeland Security apparatus in the model of the United States. This would involve an institutional machinery to keep watch over the security of public installations as well as detecting and controlling movement of people, goods and services; intercepting weapons and thwarting any terrorist ambitions. We also have to ensure provision of training for a new corps of personnel who are able to respond swiftly and adequately to any terrorist attacks on land, sea or air.

There is a considerable knowledge and analysis gap in Nigeria on all matters relating to terrorism. There are all sorts of outpourings from journalists and the popular press, but serious scholarly analyses are few. Government seems to believe that a counterterrorism strategy could be effectively launched without due consideration for knowledge and policy analytics. We therefore recommend the creation of a Counterterrorism Study Group (CSG) bringing together multidisciplinary experts in security studies, criminology, law, political science, religion, social psychology and development economics to apply qualitative and quantitative investigations of terrorism in all its ramified manifestations in Nigeria. The idea is to better understand the dynamics of terrorist groups, their organisation, funding and institutional networks and how to effectively combat them.

Terrorism is the ultimate test of the moral fibre of free societies. Violent extremists, by definition, deploy unjust and undemocratic methods in the pursuit of narrow selfish aims. Their aim is to provoke vengeful reaction by victim communities, which will lead to counter-reprisals and civil war. It is a trap that we must resist. But we must also grant communities the right to defend themselves where the state is unable and/or unwilling to protect them. The right to self-help by communities that face an existential threat to their survival is a sacrosanct right enshrined in the precepts of the Law of Nations since Hugo Grotius. We must face the enemies of our liberties without fear.

 

Obadiah Mailafia