Can Nigeria go nuclear now?

Since 2007 when Nigerian Atomic Energy Commission (NAEC) was mandated by the Yar’adua regime to generate electricity from nuclear reactors much has not been achieved. Policy inconsistency, outdated regulations, weak industrial base and low level of local technological capability coupled with ineffective implementation machinery could be responsible for inability to actualize the mandate. In fact some experts say that Nigeria has about 25 more years to actualize this dream.

Recently, I read with keen interest an article in a Nigerian newspaper on 26 April 2016 credited to a distinguished senator, indicating that “nuclear power is not safe for Nigeria.”Further, the distinguished senator says that N2.0 billion has been allocated for construction of a nuclear station in the 2016 budget. And that the “federal government should invest in solar energy rather than nuclear power which comes with a lot of danger.”

It is important to ask: can Nigeria acquire nuclear reactor now, and why? You may say that Nigeria needs a nuclear plant to enable the nation improve electricity generated for use by Nigerians. Perhaps, this is for economic development purposes. There are those who will argue strongly that Nigeria does not need nuclear plants to increase its electricity generating capacity. This is because some nations are closing down their nuclear plants. Those not favourably disposed to the use of nuclear plants for generating electricity have always argued further that the facility comes with safety challenges arising from security and environmental issues.

For instance, nations where nuclear power plants are used to generate electricity have to contend with disposal of wastes and the security of the nuclear infrastructure. The essence is to prevent theft of radioactive materials. And to avert nuclear reactor disasters as experienced in Three Mile Island, USA, in 1979; Chernobyl, former USSR now Ukraine, in 1986; and Fukushima, Japan, 2011. The Chernobyl incident alone claimed more than 4000 lives. Despite the efficiency of these nations, advancement in technology, and nuclear disaster management records, unfortunate incidents still occurred.

It is unfortunate that Nigeria has not imbibed a strong maintenance culture needed to guarantee safety. This is the big problem in a nation that cannot maintain its road and rail networks. If Nigeria cannot maintain petroleum refineries, can the nation maintain a nuclear powered plant? Nigeria can handle safety issues emanating from the use of nuclear powered plants if we put our nation in order. We need to develop a maintenance culture that will guarantee sustained operation of a nuclear reactor with no failure.

Just like the nation kept postponing Turn Around Maintenance (TAM) of refineries, I bet when it is time to maintain nuclear powered plants, we will start hearing funny stories. This is not the first time we hear stories from governments such as “government is broke,” “there is no fund.” Government may even tell you that the project is no more viable after funds have been misappropriated for several years.

Though there are reports suggesting that accident risks remain low and is gradually declining with improved technology. It is equally put forward that there are about 440 commercial nuclear powered plants operable in 31 countries, with over 380,000 MWe of total capacity. Information has it that about 65 more reactors are under construction as at 2016. These figures provide 11 percent of world’s electricity without carbon dioxide emission. Additionally, 56 countries operate a total of about 240 research reactors and a further 180 nuclear reactors power some 140 ships and submarines.

As some nations in Europe are closing down older nuclear reactors and investing heavily in life extension repairs of existing facilities, others are increasing their capacities. Countries such as China, India, Russia, and South Africa, just to mention a few, are increasing their capacities. Reports show that Nigeria has requested the International Atomic Energy Agency to develop plans for two 1000 MWe reactors.

The economics of nuclear power reveals that the overall cost covers but is not limited to capital costs, plant operating cost, cost arising from environmental issues etc. The cost estimate for a new electricity generation nuclear powered plants is about US$ 5339/KW. If for instance, Nigeria wants a 1000 MW nuclear generating plant, it will cost about US$ 6.0 billion. This amount at official exchange rate of N197/dollar is about N1.051 trillion. This is just the capital cost. Other cost implications have not been considered.

There are many used nuclear reactors in Europe and other parts of the world. If the nation must buy nuclear reactors, I strongly appeal to the federal government not to go for a fairly used. This is because of safety and environmental implications. Equally disturbing is the fact that our environment in which nuclear reactor is to be operated is technologically unsophisticated to support its operations and maintenance.

There is a global security concern on access to radioactive materials by terrorists to make dirty bombs. That was why 50 world leaders met in Washington some time ago. If we all agree that Nigeria should have a nuclear power plant for generating electricity supply, can we guarantee that the nation will secure this nuclear reactor and radioactive materials bearing in mind our numerous security challenges. That is why I align myself with the suggestion of the distinguished senator that both state and federal governments should intensify their efforts in the installation of solar power panels.

What is the way forward? A lot of issues need to be addressed such as reviving the capital goods sector, repair of critical infrastructure such as road and rail networks. Governments at state and federal levels should invest more in renewable energy to enable the nation meet its electricity supply requirements. The law establishing NECA is old and needs urgent review to meet contemporary aspiration of the nation in generating electricity with nuclear reactors. Appropriate reactor type must be chosen. Nigeria must train and have an assemblage of specialists to run the nuclear plant. Importantly, Nigeria needs to improve on existing maintenance culture. Above all, the government must have purposeful commitment and political will. If the acquisition of nuclear plant for electricity generation is not well planned, it may end up as a turnkey project in which there is no direct participation of Nigerians in the design, implementation and commissioning. I hope that Nigeria’s nuclear ambition will not remain in the “pipeline” forever!

 

MA Johnson