Buhari’s first 100 days  

As President Muhammadu Buhari’s 100 days in office approached, a curious drama opened when Femi Adesina, the president’s special adviser on media and publicity, claimed after 75 days that Buhari’s party and not the president it was that promised a public declaration of his assets. The crisis in the National Assembly had purportedly been predicated on party supremacy, so Adesina’s point was not quite clear. What was clear was that the president seemed to have second thoughts about the matter! Within days of inauguration, Garba Shehu, the other presidential spokesman (by the way, does anyone know how Adesina and Shehu’s duties are demarcated?), tried to extricate Buhari from the promise by asking anyone interested in the declaration to make a Freedom of Information (FOI) request to the Code of Conduct Bureau (CCB). Shehu’s position was disingenuous because CCB’s position that it could not entertain such FOI requests until a specific law is enacted was well known.

Days to the anniversary, Shehu then wrote an article disclaiming two documents which underpinned expectations of public assets declaration – “One Hundred Things Buhari Will Do in 100 Days” and “My Covenant With Nigerians” – while APC spokesman, “omnipresent” and “omni-speaking” Lai Muhammed, suggested on TV that Buhari made no promises whatsoever to Nigerians! When protests hit the public space due to these shocking statements, Buhari’s strategists executed an about-turn as the president released a list of his possessions without ascribing value to the non-monetary assets. So the president owns houses in Abuja, Kano, Kaduna and Daura as well as plots of land in Kano and Port-Harcourt, but we have no idea of their value! He has 270 cows and a “variety” of “birds” also of unspecified value. When some newspapers reported Buhari’s worth as “less than N30 million” based only on cash in the bank, it was deliberate falsehood! In my most charitable assessment, the whole affair rises to the level of duplicity and deception!

The attempt to disclaim expectations from Buhari’s first 100 days was in any event misplaced – even if candidate Buhari and/or his party made no 100-day promises, citizens and analysts would still examine the president’s early performance; as they say, morning shows the day! Meanwhile, having contradicted himself on the record multiple times, few intelligent people are likely to believe any statements made by Garba Shehu in the future!

Buhari appears to have made some good appointments – I think Ibe Kachikwu is a good fit at NNPC and has the right insights about reforming the corporation and the sector. It is unfortunate that Buhari pre-empted him by arguing against fuel subsidy removal and privatization of refineries, probably prompting Kachikwu to toe the same line in relation to the refineries, but if Kachikwu comes to a similar conclusion on subsidies, at a time oil prices are below $50 per barrel, his credibility would be lost. The selection of Tunde Fowler to reform federal taxes is also a good choice as he helped turn Lagos into the country’s most effective tax state. The appointment of service chiefs has been well-received and the appointees appear to be credible professionals who can help resolve Nigeria’s critical security challenges. I cannot say the same for controversial appointments at Department of State Security (DSS), Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) and Customs! The reservations about the constitutionality of some appointments (INEC and AMCON) are well-grounded and some (INEC and DSS) appear tainted with nepotism. Generally, Buhari appears to be re-validating his record as a regional chauvinist given the pattern of his appointments. Having constituted the apex of his administration, he has centralized power in the North; it is probably naïve to hope the perceived lopsidedness will be redressed in future appointments – you are unlikely to redress power imbalance at the top with inferior appointments! Appointment of ministers from the 36 states is a constitutional mandate and cannot redress imbalance in powerful discretional appointments. We recall that during his US visit, Buhari articulated a “97 percent and 5 percent” theory and noted that he had no choice regarding spread of some constitutional positions. It is strange to justify predominance of Northern appointments based on merit because such pattern is not replicated in the private sector, professions, corporate sector and academia!

I’m sure some will be surprised when I say that I am yet to observe any war against corruption! All I see thus far is a continuing media campaign against ex-President Jonathan and his team! When a war against corruption commences, a credible attorney-general will be appointed; prosecution of corrupt persons across the political spectrum will commence; and structural and strategic actions such as enactment of a Whistle Blower Protection Act and other intelligent actions to deal with, and prevent, corruption will be embarked upon. Unsubstantiated announcements by party spokesmen, governors and sundry persons about “one minister stole $6 billion”, “trillions of naira missing”, “billions of dollars were stolen”, “Chinese loan was diverted”, etc. are not evidence of a war against corruption. I hope government will soon commence effective steps to hold people accountable for past, present and future corruption; and assume what we are witnessing is perhaps “pre-war” mobilization of Nigerians for the anti-corruption war to come.

Thankfully, a war against “Boko Haram” is now evident, but the terrorists have killed probably up to 1,000 Nigerians in Buhari’s first 100 days! I do not yet see any strategy beyond the conventional domestic and multinational military approach, whereas the conflict has again evolved requiring in addition a focus on an intelligence-led counter-insurgency strategy. I expect Buhari to suppress the military might of the terrorists within a short while, but government must penetrate and destroy the group and disable its ability to blow up people. Most critically, government must not allow Boko Haram migrate outside its current base.

Buhari has ruled Nigeria for 100 days without a cabinet; in effect, a de facto sole administrator, and many states have followed his example. I do not think this development is positive for our democratic development. It has allowed Buhari to singularly decide all appointments; make policy (including deciding to start a national airline!) and, most critically, absence of a policy team and coherent policy direction has had severe economic costs in declining capital markets, pressure on currencies, slowdown of foreign investment and falling output. In the absence of fiscal and economic policy, CBN has become sole theatre of policy formulation executing trade, industrial and broad economic policy. Nigeria’s GDP growth rate is declining precipitously and jobs figures are getting worse, not better! It seems clear that cabinet constitution was delayed simply to outwit other factions in the ruling APC in favour of the president’s core. Nigeria has paid a high economic cost for political subterfuge. I support the fiscal stimulus represented by the “bail-out” of the states given the state of the economy and in the interest of workers whose salaries had not been paid for several months, but it may have been useful if the fiscal reprieve came with some “conditionalities” to prevent recurrence in future! I support the Treasury Single Account as a public financial management tool, but no one is calibrating implementation to prevent dangers to financial sector stability, or measuring the implication for monetary policy.

My sense is that in the first 100 days, President Buhari has missed several opportunities – an opportunity to leverage massive domestic and international goodwill into economic advantages through policy reforms and massive FDI; while coherent policy remains lacking, a de facto trend towards regressive, government-controlled, neo-nationalist economic policy is emerging; an opportunity to become a national leader and unifier rather than provincial champion is been spurned and Buhari is receding into usual regional patterns; he visited the US without a cabinet (instead with Governors Okorocha, Oshiomhole and Al-Makura) and without policy except for help to recover an inchoate $150 billion loot. It is possible to reclaim these missed opportunities in the weeks and months to come.