Buhari and the gradual squandering of hope

Buhari’s election and subsequent assumption of office were epochal events in Nigeria. His election gave Nigerians, especially the poor masses, renewed hope and optimism that the desired ‘change’ has finally come. Never before, since independence, had there been such a groundswell of optimism in our collective ability to resurrect the ‘crippled and sleeping giant’ of a nation and begin to position it to achieve its manifest destiny of being the voice and leading Africa and the black world.

Admittedly, Buhari started well by making the right noises and is doing a marvellous job of haranguing and putting the fear of God in corrupt officials who have defrauded or have the intention of defrauding the country. The war against the Boko Haram insurgency is also coming on fine.

However, the greatest problem and worry for even diehard Buhari supporters has been the economy. Since coming to power, Buhari has proceeded as if the economy is the least of his problems. Granted, he largely campaigned on an anti-corruption and security platform, but he also promised the masses that their fortunes will improve under his leadership. And for that to happen, the economy must grow at a healthy rate. However, last week, the growth figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that the economy grew by only 2.8 percent in 2015 as against 6.2 percent in 2014. It is the first time since 1991 that the economy will grow below 3 percent. And with population growth rate at 2 percent, it means per capita income growth is flat. What this means in simple language is that Nigerians grew poorer in 2015. Growth figures of first quarter of 2016 aren’t out yet, but we expect that they will be worse than those of 2015.

The markets initially responded positively to the peaceful transition of power in the country, but due to the government’s lack of decisiveness and direction on the economy, doubts set in and the recession began. It is now appearing sadly, as I suspected, that President Buhari sees corruption as Nigeria’s greatest obstacle to growth and development and that eradicating it will automatically catapult Nigeria to economic Eldorado, hence his sole focus on fighting corruption. Many Nigerians also hold that same view.

It is quite sad to see Nigerians mistake the symptom of a problem for the main problem itself. I have said it severally that corruption is not Nigeria’s greatest problem. It is only a symptom of a bigger problem – the absence or weakness of institutions. Historically also, we have seen the phenomenal growth of South East Asian countries where the economy and corruption grew phenomenally and in tandem. This has put a lie to the Western-inspired theory that corruption is positively correlated with poor economic performances. Rapid and phenomenal economic growth could and indeed did coexist with rapid and phenomenal corruption as the cases of Indonesia under Suharto and China after Chairman Mao show. In those countries, corruption served as a grease to lubricate inefficient government bureaucratic machines. What is more, countless studies have shown that corruption especially thrive in the context of weak or failing institutions. Common sense therefore dictates that the best way to fight corruption is to strengthen state institutions. But what do we have in Nigeria? Governments claim to fight corruption by further undermining and weakening state institutions.

But I digress. As the government focuses solely on fighting corruption, the economy has been in a tailspin. Partly due to declining oil revenues and partly due to the absence of an economic team or programme or even an appropriate monetary policy, the country has been haemorrhaging jobs and investments while companies shut down or cut production due to inclement operating environment or inability to access forex to import raw materials. The beleaguered currency, on the other hand, has come under sustained pressure and is losing value with each passing day.

The government’s only response in the face of the economic malaise is to continue to defend an indefensible naira that has already devalued itself. Therefore the government spends billions of scarce dollars – ordinary people’s money – to subsidise the lifestyle of the rich and middle class Nigerians to the detriment of the poor who have not got any benefit from the government.

These days, the only defence of Buhari advanced by his hardcore supporters and admirers is that they could vouch for his integrity and good intentions to turn around the fortunes of the country. But as P.P. Ekeh once argued, “men’s motives are frail and in the long run of little worth in the analysis of social movements.” Buhari’s good intentions are not enough to rescue the ailing economy. He should learn from history and constitute a team of credible and qualified people to advise and direct the economy. If the current economy slump continues, he may have squandered the hopes of millions of Nigerians who voted for him.

 

Christopher Akor