It was a World Cup of knowns, unknowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Costa Rica shocked the world; James Rodriguez was the highest goal scorer, though Brazil thumped them out in the quarter finals; Netherlands broke their jinx of not advancing after penalties; Germany bombarded Brazil, who had not lost at home in decades, and became the first European team, eventually, to win the World Cup in South America. At Sweden 1958 Brazil was the first Latin American country to win the World Cup on European soil.
The 2014 World Cup also showed the perils of prediction. In an interview before the finals Franz Beckenbauer said “Many variables go into a football match and the tiniest, unpredictable details can influence the outcome.”
Though upsets were expected at this year’s World Cup nobody foresaw the blitzkrieg of Brazil or the routing of Spain. Most predictions, based on quantitative analysis of home advantage, past record and form gave Brazil the cup even before the first match.
Some knowns
It was the first World Cup in South America since Argentina hosted it in 1978. Spain was number one of FIFA’s ranking. Based on past performance at pervious World Cups Brazil was favoured to win followed by Germany, Argentina, Uruguay and Italy. The location of the World Cup is said to be an advantage – only four host countries have won the cup since 1950, other hosts advanced to at least the semi-finals in all but six of the 16 World Cups and neighbouring countries did well.
Three-quarters of the last 16 World Cups have been won either by the host or a country from the same continent. Uruguay won the cup in Brazil in 1950; Brazil won in 1962 and 1970 in Chile and Mexico respectively. Brazil and Spain were the “out-of-continent” winners.
After a series of disasters at the 1998 and 2002 World Cups (a dour and old Germany lost to Brazil in Japan) plus dismal performances at Euro 2000 and 2004, the Germans changed strategy and philosophy. In retrospect, winning the 2014 World Cup was planned decades ago.
A radical overhaul of the youth system led by legendary Franz Beckenbauer, reform of the German football association and the appointment of Jurgen Klinsmann as coach turned German football around.
Klinsmann and the current coach Joachim Low who was then his assistant changed the identity of German football into an attack-minded, quick ball-passing game. Both Klinsmann and Low are former strikers.
The over $1 billion revamp has turned the youth system into a talent factory, producing a lot of young talent: Sami Khedira, Mesut Ozil, Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer and Jerome Boateng (they were on the team that won the UEFA Under-21 title in 2009).
The final: a fantastic fixture
After 24 years without a World Cup, Germany came out of their trophy drought in style. It was a classic match, a fantastic fixture: Germany’s quick, nimble and fluid star team versus a star-studded compact and tight Argentine side. It was a high-class final, the icing on the cake that pitted Argentina’s tight defending against an attacking German side.
It was a fitting final; the third between both countries. Both had previously met at Mexico 1986 and Italy 1990. During both encounters the Argentine team was built around Diego Maradona just as the present Argentine national team was built around Lionel Messi.
Yet no one expected Mario Goetze, who Franz Beckenbauer compares to Messi, to score the winning goal. The match was tight until the 113th minute when Goetze who leaped onto the pitch in 87th minute to replace Miroslav Klose.
Klose, 36 years old and the highest goal scorer in World Cup history was substituted by a 22 year old who is now the poster boy of a competitive and profitable Bundesliga.
Talent made in Germany
Experts say Germany’s youth academies are producing “talent without end”. In the 2013/2014 season, more 17-year-olds featured in the Bundesliga than ever before. At the heart of Germany’s World Cup victory was the decision, 14 years ago, to compel every club to set up a youth academy.
Young boys flock to the academies where they are trained academically, technically and tactically guaranteeing an almost endless pool of talent. The touch of class that won the match came from two graduates of these academies – Goetze tucked the ball pass Sergio Romero thanks to a pass from 23-year old Andre Schurrle.
The percentage of Germans plying their trade in the Bundesliga increased to 57 percent in the 2011/2012 season from 50 percent in 2002/2003. And they are getting younger. Since the 2001/2002 season, the average age has dropped to 25.77 years from 27.09 years.
As at 2011, 5,445 talented youth (between 11 and 22 years old) were being trained at 282 youth teams in the academies of professional clubs. Conditions are so strict: from the under-12s to under-14s teams must be composed of players born in the same year. German club sides are increasingly spoilt for choice as the number of home-grown players swells. Clubs are selecting more players from their academies.
Germany’s willingness to be flexible while patiently sticking to its plan amid pitfalls is an example worth replicating. . With young talent coming out of its academies, Franz Beckenbauer, the Kaiser, reckons Germany will be “incredibly difficult to beat”.
Tayo Fagbule
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