Nigeria’s farm productivity hits 40-yr low as insecurity, climate woes deepen

Nigeria’s agricultural productivity growth is facing its worst performance in over four decades. Experts say the country’s food security equation needs a new formula as deepening insecurity, worsening climate shocks, insufficient and outdated food storage and processing facilities hamper productivity.

A comparative analysis of the sector’s GDP growth by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), in its Industrial Policy Commission (IndPC), reveals the biggest decline since the 1980s, the year of Nigeria’s Green Revolution Programme.

A five-year average shows that GDP growth peaked at 16.7 percent between 2002 and 2006, but has continued to dip, averaging just 1.2 percent between 2021 and 2024, a new low since its 2.9 percent growth between 1992-1996.

Notably, agricultural productivity has slipped far below global benchmarks across key staples, even as the country’s food needs continue to rise.

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NESG’s latest findings show that Nigeria produces only 1.9 metric tonnes of rice per hectare(MT/ha), compared to a global average of 4.7. For wheat, the local yield stands at 1.1MT/ha, while the global figure is 3.7. Maize, a major staple crop, yields just 2.0MT/ha in Nigeria against 5.9 globally.

These gaps mean Nigeria must rely heavily on food imports to meet domestic demand, a vulnerability that it has quickly realised is expensive and unsustainable. The group estimates shortfalls of 2.4 million tonnes in rice, 5.7 million in wheat, and 1.1 million in maize, which must be satisfied, or a food crisis looms.

The root causes are not far-fetched, according to MacDonald Ukah, thematic lead for agriculture at the NESG, who said the situation reflects unresolved internal issues, including frustration and fear from unprotected farmers for their untamed oppressors

“Farmers are terrified to visit their farms,” he said, referencing the wave of insecurity in farming communities across Nigeria. “It’s leading to a decline in output.”

According to the report, “longstanding unsuccess at improving poor pectoral productivity” has now been compounded by an insecurity crisis that has worsened over the past decade.

Across Nigeria, many farmlands can be found abandoned after farmers were forced to flee from the violence inflected by insurgents, bandits, and armed conflicts. Millions of naira in investments are lost and farmers or agribusinesses are forced to spend more on security, hiring private guards or seeking protection from local vigilante groups, which increases operational costs.

Climate events are further compounding the problem. Erratic rainfall, flooding, and longer dry spells have made farming more uncertain. “Weather events [are occurring] more frequently,” Ukah added.

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The NESG says the way forward in rejuvenating Nigeria’s food system is strictly sticking to a “food balance equation,” which is a framework that prioritises strong domestic production, with imports used only to compensate for shortfalls, and reserves to retain output. Exports, they said, follow value addition when surpluses exist.

“Productivity is the principal concern,” NESG noted.

According to contributors, Nigeria can turn the tide by investing in technology and mechanisation, to help farmers scale up output, improving access to finance and insurance, especially for smallholders exposed to weather and market risks, strengthening rural security, so farmers can work without fear, and “expanding storage and processing facilities,” to reduce post-harvest losses and stabilise food supply.

The group and other stakeholders reiterated that boosting productivity must go beyond policy talk and translate to tangible reforms that could save Nigeria’s food future.