How the Middle East war is forcing a leaner Eid in Africa’s biggest markets

As Ramadan draws to a close, families across Africa’s biggest economies — from Cairo to Lagos, Cape Town to Nairobi — are scaling back Eid celebrations as rising fuel costs and economic pressures squeeze household budgets.

Eid al-Fitr, which marks the end of a month of fasting, prayer and reflection, is traditionally a time of abundance — new clothes, generous meals, gifts and charity. But this year, across key African markets, celebrations are more restrained: shopping lists are shorter, food baskets are smaller, and spending is more deliberate, according to The Africa Report.

At the centre of the shift is a renewed global oil shock. The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has pushed crude prices to about $107 per barrel as of early Friday, while disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — a route that carries roughly a fifth of global oil supply — have heightened fears of prolonged supply constraints.

For African economies heavily dependent on imported refined fuel, the impact has been immediate. Rising pump prices are feeding into transport, food and production costs, threatening to reverse recent gains in inflation and weakening consumer purchasing power at a critical festive period.

South Africa: Rising costs test fragile recovery

In South Africa, where a significant Muslim population resides in the Western Cape, the cost of preparing traditional Eid meals has risen sharply.

Basic items are becoming more expensive as data from The Africa Report show that a two-litre bottle of cooking oil costs about R70 ($4), a 10kg bag of rice nearly R240 ($13), while beef prices remain elevated following a foot-and-mouth disease outbreak. Petrol prices are also climbing, currently around R20.19 ($1.10) per litre, with further increases expected.

“We need to brace ourselves at both company and household levels,” said George Glynos, head of research at ETM Analytics, pointing to the broader market impact of the Middle East crisis.

Although inflation has eased — with consumer prices rising three percent year-on-year in February — economists warn that higher fuel costs could derail the downward trend. Food inflation has moderated but remains vulnerable to external shocks.

Egypt: Currency weakness meets fuel shock

In Cairo, Eid traditions such as buying kahk — powdered sugar cookies filled with dates or nuts — are also being affected.

At popular patisseries, smaller boxes start at around E£200 ($4), while premium assortments can run into the thousands. Luxury gift boxes can cost as much as E£39,000 ($746).

But most households are cutting back. “I carefully choose only what my grandchildren like most,” one shopper said, reflecting a broader shift toward cautious spending.

Egypt’s economic strain has been building for years. Since 2022, repeated currency devaluations have significantly eroded purchasing power, making imported goods and inputs more expensive.

Recent fuel price hikes of between 14 and 17 percent have compounded the pressure. Bakeries and food producers are facing higher operating costs, which are being passed on to consumers.

Inflation is rising again, with urban inflation hitting seven month high of 13.4 percent in February, underscoring the fragile balance between stabilisation efforts and external shocks.

Nigeria: Fuel and food pressures collide

In Nigeria, home to Africa’s largest Muslim population, the pressure is particularly acute.

Fuel prices are rising, with pump prices in major cities approaching N1,200 ($0.80) per litre. The increase is feeding directly into food prices through higher transportation costs.

BusinessDay market surveys in Lagos show staples used for popular Eid meals such as jollof rice becoming more expensive. A 50kg bag of rice now sells for about N61,000 ($41), while a large basket of tomatoes costs around N41,000 ($27), up from N35,000 ($23) in January.

A bag of fresh pepper now sells for roughly N46,000 ($30), compared with N30,000 ($20) previously. Although prices of vegetable oil and palm oil have eased slightly — with a 25-litre keg of vegetable oil selling for about N55,000 ($37), down from N66,000 ($44) — traders say the overall trend remains upward.

“Transporters have already increased their costs, and we will have to pass that on to consumers,” said Bose Idowu, a Lagos-based trader.

The surge in food costs has pushed inflation higher, with food inflation rising to 12.12 percent in February, reversing a recent easing trend.

Kenya: Quieter celebrations, steady pressure

In Nairobi, the effects are more gradual but still evident.

Prices of key food items have risen steadily during Ramadan. Beef now costs about KSh750 ($6) per kilogram, up from KSh650 ($5), while rice has climbed from KSh120 ($1) to KSh180 ($1.20).

Although cooking oil prices have softened slightly, it has not been enough to offset broader cost pressures.

For many households, the impact is visible in daily choices. “This year, I won’t be able to buy my children new clothes,” said Zaituni Omar, a cleaner in Kibera.

Transport costs remain a key driver. Traders say the cost of moving livestock and food from northern regions has increased, reducing demand and squeezing margins.

While Kenya’s headline inflation has eased to 4.3 percent, food prices remain elevated, highlighting the disconnect between macroeconomic indicators and lived realities.