I was in two minds about this week’s Column. Should I discuss the election results but what else could I say that has not been said? Should I go ‘off piste’ and consider something at random but would that be ignoring the current frenzy? From a quiet election day itself, glued to Channels and Social Media to the exhilaration of relief at the (mostly) lack of violence it was an amazing change of mood. I left Lagos on the Monday night for a week with the family over Easter, tense with trepidation. Making our way in traffic through Gbagada and Oshodi I sensed more area boys than usual loitering with intent. Was that a reflection of my own fear or a real threat waiting for its opportunity? The TV screens at MMA were surrounded by eager eyes but with few results manifested before boarding. Six hours later Johannesburg news was putting GMB ahead while tweets were of conspiracy and Orubebe’s rant. By the next afternoon, quick sneaks away from holiday chilling revealed the most unexpected but welcomed behaviour by an outgoing President.
Since then the euphoria has been palpable. From mainstream to social media the airwaves and ether have carried a degree of celebration and congratulation that has swept aside any doubters. Amongst the jubilation there has been almost no room for dissent or caution.
Although I was not fully resident in Nigeria during the 1980’s, I was a regular visitor. My personal memories of that period are fairly mixed. I can remember with some affection the campaign “War Against Indiscipline”; particularly at the airport when suddenly queues became de riguer and anyone ‘pushing in’ could be brought back by cries of “WAI, WAI”. On the other hand I used to stay regularly in a guesthouse in Adeola Odeku before VI was built up. There was an unpleasant tension in the air on the Sundays that executions happened on Bar Beach and I remember being advised not to go out on those days. When the first ever female was executed there was widespread clamour for mercy which fell on deaf ears. As has been documented economic policy was also mixed. There was clear intent to re-establish agriculture and local production but implementation was poor. Against a backdrop of oil price volatility and consequent currency depreciation Nigeria’s debt grew. Inflation was brought somewhat under control but only by sudden and poorly thought through measures such as the change in currency. I certainly remember the confusion and time wasting sending members of staff to queue at the bank every day to obtain small amounts of Naira to pay salaries and bills.
Certainly, one of my overriding memories was of witnessing the decline in the middle class. Not solely in Buhari’s time but during the course of the ‘80’s the professions like doctors, lawyers and civil servants saw their economic standing destroyed. Equally as important, the social self-confidence and self-respect for this group declined, not to start recovering until the next democratic era. The standards in education and health plummeted and the best professionals went to work overseas.
To judge Buhari simply by those days as the head of a military junta would be simplistic but these are the impressions he needs to counter very early. So early as to be before his inauguration. For me, the first sign of a genuine intent to put those errors behind him and to demonstrate he is capable of independent thinking would be the announcement of some strong key members of cabinet based on merit and track record and not on the need to pander to specific interests. It would be a positive sign to see the best of the current Ministers involved though few merit that. One would definitely be Agriculture Minister Adesina. The implementation of the Agriculture Transformation Agenda has not matched its rhetoric but given some genuine support with what assumes will be a new anti-corruption drive, we could see real progress. There would be few other candidates for automatic retention though there will be calls for at least one from the Economic team.
Over the last few years there have been many attempts at policy formulation. These have generally been solid and it has been implementation that has foundered on the twin rocks of corruption and ineptitude. At the onset of his administration President Jonathan himself convened a group to develop policy and these should not be consigned to the waste bin without review. Equally, Private Sector Groups such as NESG and MAN have submitted documents, largely ignored until now. In fact, the annual Economic Summit provides a perfect opportunity for prompt planning and consultation. Early engagement with our disaffected youth is another major opportunity. Jonathan identified the problem but went the superficial route of surrounding himself with Nollywood and AfroPop. The future of Nigeria will depend on this generation believing that their voice will be heard and persuading them that their involvement in politics will be meaningful. This has to be done in a substantive way and encourage their participation. Buhari will need to free himself from the tentacles of the old guard and develop a credible relationship with his younger constituency. His age and persona may prevent him from doing this personally but he needs to initiate the process and appoint someone not just to be a spokesperson but who can develop policies and co-ordinate across Ministries.
Our euphoria in a significant step in our democratic process is not mis-judged. However, it is just one step and observers from within and without will be watching for early indications of how our new dispensation will evolve. There is so much more to hope for.
Keith Richards
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