Seven months after Nigeria’s 2015 presidential election, the world still wants to talk about it. This is, of course, against the backdrop of Nigeria, thank God, defying several apocalyptic predictions to achieve the unprecedented feat of a peaceful transfer of power from an incumbent president to an opposition candidate. This historic accomplishment inevitably put Nigeria on the global map as a beacon of democracy in Africa. And, rightly, the world wants to hear from Nigeria and learn more about its experience.
Now, there is no better place in Europe to hear world leaders and other influential figures discussing world affairs than the London School of Economics (LSE), the world’s 2nd best specialist university for the social sciences, after Harvard, according to the 2014 QS World University Rankings, with its think tank – LSE IDEAS and Public Policy – also ranked 2nd best university think tank in the world, after Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, according to the 2014 Think Tank and Civil Society Programme league tables.
It’s understandable, then, that Attahiru Jega, professor of political science and former chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), came to LSE, on Tuesday 10 November, to talk about the 2015 general elections. In fact, he came under the auspices of the LSE “Africa Talks” programme, a public lecture series designed for African leaders and influential figures “to inform and transform global debates”. Jega was invited to speak on the topic “Nigeria’s 2015 General Elections: giving democracy a chance”. According to the event’s blurb, Jega would “give the inside story of Nigeria’s first successful transfer of power in the contentious 2015 elections that brought the country back from the brink”. As someone who wrote several articles in this column on the elections, let alone as a Nigerian, this was a lecture that I didn’t want to miss. I wanted to hear the “inside story” of the elections from the horse’s mouth! So I headed early for the Sheikh Zayed Theatre venue of the lecture.
At about 6.25pm, Jega entered the hall in his trademark calm and unassuming manner. He was immediately introduced by Kate Meager, associate professor of development studies at LSE and coordinator of the Africa Talks programme, who chaired the lecture. Meager spoke glowingly about Jega’s achievements, from his time as president of the Academic Staff Union of Universities (ASUU) during the Babangida regime, when he “negotiated a landmark agreement for Nigerian academics”, to his recently completed national assignment as chairman of INEC, a role for which he has been widely acclaimed for his excellent performance. Indeed, Jega was recently honoured by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) with the 2015 Charles T. Manatt Democracy Award for his “unwavering commitment to protecting and promoting Nigerians’ right to have a vote and a voice”. Meager described Jega as an African leader, a description she said should not be reserved for politicians alone, adding that Jega has the “ability to derive consensus from situations of crisis”.
After the warm and obviously heart-felt words from Meager, it was time to hear from Jega himself. A humble man, he blushed at the compliment and went straight to deliver his speech. Essentially, the lecture was divided into three broad themes, namely, preparation for the 2015 general elections, challenges during the elections and how they were met and lessons learned.
On INEC’s preparation for the 2015 elections, Jega’s starting point was that being able to conduct two consecutive general elections helped as it allowed lessons to be learned from past mistakes by the same people. Jega’s INEC was, of course, the first in Nigeria to conduct two consecutive general elections. Previous leaderships of the electoral bodies had been disbanded after conducting one set of general elections, usually following widespread allegations of rigging and other malpractices. But the Jega-led INEC, which was constituted in 2010, conducted both the 2011 and 2015 general elections. Jega argued that this helped him and his team to prepare for and improve the 2015 elections. As he put it, “we spent a lot of time learning from 2011 and used the findings to inform our planning for 2015”.
As part of the preparation for the 2015 elections, INEC optimised and “de-duplicate” the register of voters, which helped to “remove 4 million people from the register that were duplicates”. The review of electoral cases after 2011 elections also helped INEC to address some of its internal weaknesses. For instance, INEC employees indicted by the tribunals were removed and where INEC itself was criticised necessary changes were made. The introduction of technology and particularly the use of the permanent voter’s card (PVC) and the card reader were also key developments in the 2015 general elections. Jega strongly defended the card reader against criticism that its use was problematic. He said that the number of card reader that failed “was statistically insignificant”.
Some Nigerians will, of course, take issue with that assessment, given the disruptions that were reported in some states, such as Rivers. I also recall that there were widely reported problems of poor distribution of PVCs, which heightened tension before the elections. Given that the turnout in the 2015 elections were much lower than those of 2011, it would be difficult not to see some correlation or even causation between challenges posed by the new technologies and people’s willingness and ability to vote, although, to be fair, there were other important factors at work, such as general voter apathy.
For Jega, though, the 2015 general elections were successful because of a “vastly improved” organisational, administrative and institutional framework, the use of several technological innovations, the high level confidence of many stakeholders in INEC’s management of the process and the effectiveness of local and foreign partnerships. Crucially, Jega also mentioned the “apparent commitment” of the Jonathan administration to successful elections, particularly in terms of funding.
The credit to Jonathan’s government is significant because, whatever one might say about the former president, he gave democracy a real boost in Nigeria. The two general elections that he presided over, in 2011 and 2015, are certainly the most credible since the new democratic dispensation started in 1999.And, as the world has acknowledged, his decision to concede defeat, rather than kick up a fuss, helped to consolidate democracy in Nigeria.
However, notwithstanding these positive drivers, Jega said that there were two critical changes that would have produced even more positive effects, but which INEC could not make before the 2015 general elections. The first is the review of existing legal framework and the second, the review of electoral constituencies and polling units. On the first, Jega pointed out that, despite making detailed recommendations to the National Assembly, the electoral law was not amended. As a result, INEC had to conduct the 2015 general elections with the same 2011 rules, which he argued were deeply flawed.
Take internal party democracy. Section 87 of the 2010 Electoral Act requires parties to “hold primaries for aspirants to all elective positions” and to submit the name of “the aspirant with the highest number of votes at the end of the voting” to INEC. Yet, section 31 of the same Act says that INEC “shall not reject or disqualify candidate(s)”submitted to it “for any reason whatsoever”. Jega said that there were primaries in which the parties submitted the names of the losers, rather than the winners,to INEC but it had to accept them because of section 31 of the Electoral Act. Of course, as Rotimi Amaechi’s case showed in Rivers State in 2007 and the Darius Ishaku case has just shown in Taraba State, albeit still subject to appeal, while INEC can do nothing about abuse of internal party democracy, the courts can and will, although it is better to address the problem ex ante rather than ex post.
The second change that INEC couldn’t make before the 2015 general elections is even more fundamental. Jega said he regretted that INEC couldn’t carry out a review of electoral constituencies and polling units in Nigeria, admitting that it was left too late. And by the time INEC tried to do it, “it was a hot potato” as the politicians prevented it. Electoral constituencies in Nigeria are based on past censuses, which were conducted under military regimes and, as Jega put it, they “favoured some constituencies over others”. Of course, those who benefit from such skewed constituencies would resist any attempt to revise them. Yet, without a fair electoral constituency structure, it is difficult to talk of fair elections.
Elsewhere, the review of electoral constituencies is routine and often devoid of partisanship. For instance, in the UK, the four boundaries commissions, covering the four nations – England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland – are independent and impartial public bodies that each has a mandate to undertake a complete review of all electoral constituencies in its area every 8 to 12 years. The currently proposed Sixth Review would reduce the number of UK Parliamentary constituencies from 650 to 600. Research suggests that the review would costs the Conservative Party 19 of its MPs, while Labour would lose 20. But because it is based on an objective methodology, the outcome will not be politically controversial. Furthermore, there is a consensus that constituency structures should be fair in order for elections to be credible. Jega argued that such a systematic review of constituencies is needed in Nigeria, but noted that “it’s difficult”.
In addition to the above challenges, Jega identified others that are “daunting and persistent”. These include apathetic and sceptical citizens who don’t believe that their votes count, the “do-or-die” attitude of Nigerian politicians, and the flawed existing legal framework. These challenges, he argued, must be addressed before the next general elections. To this end, there should be well-funded voter education to tackle voter apathy and politicians must change their winning-at-all-costs mind-set. Furthermore, the legal system must be changed to make the conduct of elections less burdensome. He noted, for instance, that the constitution requires a run-off within 7 days of an election, which is virtually impossible, especially for the presidential election. “Thank God there was no run-off in 2015”, he reflected, adding: “there would have been a constitutional crisis”. He stressed that “future elections must be under new rules”.
Jega concluded his speech with the lessons he believed other African countries could draw from the Nigerian experience. He highlighted six lessons. First, election should be made a routine affair so that election management bodies (EMBs) can learn from experience and improve from one election to another. Second, there should be experience-sharing and even resource-sharing among the EMBs. He noted that INEC is already supporting other African EMBs in this respect. Third, efforts should be made to gain the trust and confidence of stakeholders. Fourth, there should be adequate and timely release of funds for elections. Fifth, there should be a gradual introduction of appropriate and adaptable technology backed by strong administrative and audit systems. And, sixth, there should be deployment of an election risk management tools and early warning systems to prevent election-related conflicts and violence.
The audience liked what they heard and, obviously, also liked the man himself, and wanted to hear more from him! Someone wanted to know, for instance, how he coped under pressure and dealt with difficult politicians. His answer was “one has to retain one’s sanity and keep cool at all times, otherwise you would go crazy”. He added he also handled political pressure by being transparent, disclosing that he severed personal relationships with politicians who were his friends once he took the INEC job.
Typically, he avoided self-glorification and rejected suggestions that INEC succeeded only because of him. The achievements of INEC, he said, were the results of a strong institution and collective responsibility. He declared that he resisted an attempt to have a second term because he was more concerned about building institutions, adding, to a general applause, that “In a country like Nigeria, having 1 million Jegas would even be better”. He then advised those who still wanted to know more about his time in INEC to wait for his book. “In a matter of time you can read my book which chronicles my experience”. Surely, Nigerians would be more than eager to read a more detailed “inside story”, and perhaps revelatory account, of the 2011 and 2015 general elections!
Without a doubt, Jega has set a high bar for the new INEC chairman, Mahmud Yakubu. And the challenge for him is to match or even surpass it. Certainly, he must consolidate and build on Jega’s achievements. Also, President Buhari, who benefited from the democratic achievement that the world is celebrating, must do everything possible to sustain and strengthen it. As part of this, he should support a review of the electoral constituencies, and introduce bills to amend the electoral act. The National Assembly should, of course, do the needful and make the necessary changes to the electoral law and even the constitution.
For me, it was good to see Attahiru Jega at LSE. He is clearly a very simple man. But beneath his soft exterior lie a strong determination to do things right, a commitment to institution-building and a devotion to excellent public service. He is a true asset to Nigeria, and the world is right to celebrate him!
Olu Fasan
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