How instrumental are governors to presidential election success?

…What are Tinubu’s chances of victory in 32 governors’ domain?

As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general election, a familiar political question has resurfaced: do governors truly control presidential outcomes in their states?

With a wave of defections by opposition governors swelling the ranks of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in the last two years, analysts argue that having over 30 governors could hand President Bola Ahmed Tinubu a decisive edge. But recent electoral history suggests the reality is far more complex.

Governors remain powerful political actors. They control party structures at the state level, influence local campaign machinery, and often shape delegate selection and grassroots mobilisation. In theory, this makes them critical assets in any presidential race.

In many cases, governors serve as political gatekeepers, shaping election outcomes through their extensive networks. Observers say this undermines democratic norms, as their overbearing influence gives them unrivalled leverage.

Ifeanyi Nnamdi, a public policy expert, said governors have had an overbearing influence on party structures, stressing that when governors dictate candidates, control mobilisation, and influence voter turnout, the process becomes undemocratic.

“It doesn’t give an inclusive system. In most cases, if you are not in their good books, you don’t get the ticket. That’s why you see rancour and defections after primaries. But many of them are losing out and are only aided back into office through rigging.”

Observers say this reality explains President Tinubu’s focus on courting opposition politicians, especially governors to the APC and repairing strained relationships with APC governors. To him, he cannot win the 2027 election in any state without the support of the governor.

Governors have only one vote each

History shows that governors cannot always deliver their states for their preferred candidates.

The 2015 and 2023 presidential elections exposed clear limits to that influence.

In 2015, former president Goodluck Jonathan lost the presidential election to opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari despite having most governors in the country in his party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). In that election, Jonathan lost in most PDP-controlled states, especially in Northern Nigeria.

Similarly, in 2023, sitting governors lost their states to opposition candidates in both the presidential and gubernatorial polls.

In the presidential poll, Tinubu lost key battleground states to opposition candidates, even where incumbent governors were from the APC and controlled party machinery and state resources.

For instance, in the 2023 presidential poll, President Tinubu lost in Katsina, Lagos, Kaduna, Adamawa, Imo, and Kano States, even though the APC had sitting governors in those states.

Other presidential candidates, Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), won elections in states controlled by opposition governors.

Some of the states Obi won in 2023, such as Delta, Edo, Lagos, and Plateau, were controlled by opposition governors. Kwankwaso also swept Kano with over a million votes, despite the APC being in power in the state.

Atiku Abubakar, the PDP candidate, won Kaduna State and other states that were then controlled by the APC.

Tinubu won the presidency with 8.79 million votes (36.6percent) and secured the constitutional spread across states. But crucially, he did not dominate all APC-controlled states, raising doubts about the assumption that governors can automatically “deliver” their domains.

So, it is clear that having governors in your party does not automatically guarantee electoral success.

Still, Nigeria’s electoral history suggests incumbents backed by powerful state structures often withstand public dissatisfaction through superior organisation, resources, and institutional influence.

Broad change in voting pattern

Results from the last two presidential polls show changing voting patterns. This often makes presidential elections unpredictable and reduces the influence of governors on outcomes.

For instance, beyond Lagos, broader voting patterns in 2023 reinforce the point. Tinubu’s strongest support did not even come from his South-West base alone; instead, the North-West delivered the largest share of his votes, underscoring the importance of regional coalitions over gubernatorial control.

Nationally, Tinubu carried only 12 states, the same number as PDP’s Atiku Abubakar, while Labour Party’s Obi won 11 states plus the FCT.

The defeat of ruling party candidates in states controlled by their party shows that no single party, even with governors, had total dominance across the federation.

Political analysts say this means governors matter, but they are not kingmakers on their own.

They attribute this to the rise of independent voter sentiment. Firstly, the 2023 election saw unprecedented youth mobilisation, urban voter assertiveness, and social media-driven campaigns.

These forces weakened traditional structures controlled by governors. Secondly, there was split-ticket voting.

Many voters distinguished between state and federal choices, supporting a governor’s party locally but backing a different presidential candidate nationally.

Analysts also pointed to internal party dynamics, stressing that defections do not always translate to grassroots loyalty. A governor may switch parties, but local structures, voters, and even party members may not automatically follow.

“While a large bloc of governors can boost campaign logistics, funding, and elite consensus, elections are ultimately decided by voters, not political office holders, except where it is rigged.

“An election that is rigged shows that such a government lacks legitimacy,” said Odore Hakeem, a political analyst.

He further argued that the 2023 outcome demonstrated that voter independence is growing, especially in urban centres and among younger demographics.

According to him, “Most of these governors are not popular. If there is a free and fair election, most of them would lose in 2027.

“That is why the critical question is not how many governors the APC controls, but whether those governors retain genuine grassroots legitimacy. Without that, their influence may be overstated.”

Also speaking, Chisom Uwaleke, a political analyst, said the influence of governors in elections, especially presidential polls, depends on their acceptability among the people.

Uwaleke argued that control of 32 governors may not guarantee support for President Tinubu in 2027 because many governors lack public support due to poor performance and hardship caused by unfulfilled campaign promises.

According to Uwaleke, “Tinubu promised to tackle the power problem and insecurity; has he done that? These are just two of the promises. Nigerians are not fools. If he has performed well, he does not need to beg governors to join the APC.

“Even the governors are not popular in their states because they are not serving their people well, so the people would not follow them.

“Also, the people have a way of expressing themselves for their preferred candidates.”