From NNPCL to national reform: Why Ojulari’s first year matters

When Bola Ahmed Tinubu appointed Bashir Bayo Ojulari as group chief executive officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) on April 2, 2025, it was seen as another technocratic appointment into a system long resistant to reform. One year later, that decision is beginning to look less routine and more consequential.

Ojulari’s first year at NNPCL is not just a corporate turnaround story. It is a test case for a deeper national question: can Nigeria’s state-owned enterprises be run on commercial principles without being undermined by political and structural constraints?

Early indicators suggest a break from the past. Under his leadership, NNPCL has moved decisively toward transparency, publishing regular operational and financial reports and hosting its first-ever earnings call. In a system historically defined by opacity, this shift is not cosmetic; it signals a reorientation of institutional culture. For investors and observers alike, transparency is not just about disclosure; it is about credibility.

Financial performance has reinforced that perception. The company’s 2024 audited results, ₦5.4 trillion in profit after tax on ₦45.1 trillion in revenue, represent a dramatic turnaround from its previous years. Production from NNPCL-operated assets has also increased significantly, supported by infrastructure milestones and renewed joint venture activity with international oil companies. On the surface, the numbers tell a compelling story: a state enterprise beginning to function like a commercially viable entity.

But numbers alone do not settle the argument. A critical question remains whether this performance reflects deep structural reform or favourable conditions amplified by stronger management. Exchange rate dynamics, improved crude output, and global energy market shifts have all played a role. The real test is sustainability: whether these gains can be maintained when conditions become less favourable.

It is in this context that Ojulari’s more difficult decisions deserve closer attention. The temporary shutdown of the Warri, Port Harcourt, and Kaduna refineries marked a decisive break from a long-standing pattern of political accommodation. For decades, these assets consumed billions in maintenance while delivering minimal value. Halting operations, despite pressure to maintain the illusion of functionality, signals a willingness to prioritise economic reality over political optics.

Even this raises further questions. Will the proposed shift toward private-sector partnerships deliver real efficiency, or will it replicate past cycles of contractual opacity? Can the reforms outlast the current leadership, or are they personality-driven rather than institutionalised?

Beyond NNPCL itself, Ojulari’s tenure also intersects with broader dynamics in Nigeria’s energy sector. His alignment with the Dangote Refinery, particularly on crude supply and product distribution, marks a notable departure from the historically adversarial posture of state entities toward private capital. If sustained, this collaboration could help stabilise domestic fuel supply and reduce reliance on imports. But it also introduces a new strategic balance: how to leverage private capacity without creating new forms of concentration or dependency.

Ultimately, the significance of Ojulari’s first year lies less in what has been achieved and more in what it represents. It suggests that leadership, when combined with technical competence and a degree of operational autonomy, can unlock performance even within constrained systems. But it also highlights the limits of individual reform in the absence of deeper institutional alignment.

Nigeria’s history is replete with moments of apparent progress that later proved difficult to sustain. NNPCL itself has undergone previous waves of reform, each promising transformation and few delivering lasting change. The risk is not that current gains are insignificant, but that they may remain isolated.

For this moment to endure, three conditions are critical. First, transparency must be institutionalised rather than dependent on leadership preference. Second, commercial discipline must be protected from political interference. Third, reform must extend beyond NNPCL into the broader policy environment that shapes the energy sector.

Ojulari’s first year has demonstrated what is possible. It has not yet proven what is permanent.

The distinction matters. Because in Nigeria, the difference between progress and transformation is not performance; it is sustainability.

Agada Abuh Theophilus is a Public Affairs Analyst/Media Consultant