Defections redraw balance of power in the House as opposition loses 119 seats

The partisan balance in Nigeria’s House of Representatives has shifted once again, as a fresh wave of defections reshaped representation in the Green Chamber and highlighted the fluid nature of party politics in the 10th Assembly as 2027 election draws nearer.

A steady wave of defections since July 2024 has drained the opposition of 119 seats out of 182 seats when the 10th Assembly was inaugurated and strengthening the ruling party in a way that is increasingly hard to ignore.

Since July 2024, when the current wave began, a total of 121 members have switched party allegiance. The latest episode came last Tuesday, when 30 members formally notified the House during plenary that they were changing political affiliation. Their reasons, as they put it, ranged from leadership crises and factional disputes to deeper organisational challenges within their former parties.

But beyond the explanations, the numbers tell a clearer story of how the House is gradually being reshaped.

The shift has also expanded the House to nine political parties, with the Action Peoples Party (APP) now joining the fold after receiving two Members from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP).

Behind the numbers is a clear trend: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been the biggest beneficiary, gaining 97 seats through defections since the current cycle began added to its 175 seats as at inauguration, and firmly reinforcing its position in the majority caucus.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has gained 16 seats, while the Accord Party (AP) has picked up 3. The Action Peoples Party (APP) has also entered the scene with 2 seats, marking its first presence in the House. Both the Labour Party (LP) and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) have gained 2 and 1 seat respectively.

On the losing side, the opposition has taken the bigger hit.

The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) accounts for the largest share of losses, shedding 74 seats over the period. The Labour Party follows with 25 seats lost, while the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) has lost 14.

Smaller losses came from the Young Progressives Party (3), APGA (2), and the ADC (1). The APC itself also recorded a slight loss of 2 seats in the process.

Put together, the opposition has lost a total of 119 seats since the defections began, a figure that captures just how much movement has taken place beneath the surface of the House.

With the latest changes, the APC remains in the majority caucus, while the minority side is now spread across a wide mix of parties: the PDP, ADC, NNPP, APGA, LP, Social Democratic Party (SDP), AP, and APP.

The growing spread of parties in the House paints a picture of a legislature that is more diverse than before, but also more fluid.

Tuesday’s defections, in particular, stood out because they included Members moving not only within the opposition, but also out of the majority into smaller parties, a sign that the direction of political movement is no longer one-way.

Within the numbers, some patterns are becoming clear. The PDP continues to record the highest level of defections, pointing to ongoing internal tensions and adjustments within the party. The Labour Party, on the other hand, has recorded new gains for the first time since this wave of defections began, offering a slight counterbalance to its earlier losses.

The Social Democratic Party (SDP) remains the only party yet to record a loss through defection in the current Assembly, standing out in an environment where party loyalty has become increasingly flexible.

Since the inauguration of the 10th Assembly, the House has at different points recorded representation from ten different political parties, although not all at the same time. It is a reflection of a political environment where affiliations are still being tested, and where members continue to move in response to both internal dynamics and broader political calculations.