Community-focused intervention cuts child marriage by 80% in northern Nigeria

A community-focused programme targeting out-of-school adolescent girls in northern Nigeria has reduced the likelihood of child marriage by 80 per cent, according to new evidence according to new evidence presented by the Centre for Girls’ Education (CGE).

The intervention, known as Pathways to Choice, was developed and implemented by the Centre for Girls’ Education (CGE) and focuses on adolescent girls who are out of school, a group identified as being at particularly high risk of early marriage and pregnancy.

Speaking at the webinar, “Investing in Girls’ Choices: Baseline insights on delaying the age of marriage and first birth in Niger & Nigeria,” Maryam Abubakar of the Centre said the findings demonstrate that providing credible alternatives to early marriage can significantly delay early marriage.

She noted that across northern Nigeria, adolescent girls face overlapping challenges, including limited access to school, poor learning outcomes, high rates of child marriage and early childbearing, weak livelihood pathways and persistent harmful social norms. While conditions are improving, the scale of the challenge however persists. In Kaduna State, for instance, she highlighted that 50 percent of girls still marry before the age of 18, with more than 20 percent marrying before age 15, while one in three girls gives birth before turning 18.

Community leaders also still consider marriage under 18 to be acceptable, though nearly all expressed support for equal educational opportunities for boys and girls.

Abubakar noted that these outcomes are not driven by poverty alone but reflect deeper systemic failures, explaining that where education does not translate into learning or economic opportunity, early marriage and motherhood often become rational choices for families.

She further informed that Pathways to Choice directly targeted out-of-school girls aged 11 to 17. The programme identified eligible participants across 18 communities in three states and enrolled them in a structured two-year intervention combining mentorship, skills development and community engagement.

A randomised controlled trial conducted by the University of Washington found that girls enrolled in the programme were 80 percent less likely to be married two years after the intervention began compared with their peers.

By the end of the programme, 86 percent of girls in the control group were married, compared with just 21 percent of those who participated in Pathways.

Abubakar further informed that participants of thr programme were also seven times more likely to still be in school after two years.

Beyond delaying marriage, the intervention led to what Abubakar described as “dramatic improvements” in school completion rates and shifts in the age of marriage, largely driven by sustained community engagement alongside direct support for girls.

Also speaking, Emily Mangone, a programme officer in the Family Planning team at the Gates Foundation, said ongoing work with CGE and CARE is focused on adapting the model to make it more cost-efficient while preserving impact.

She highlighted an investment of $106 per girl in the one million out-of-school and at-risk in-school girls in Kaduna and Kano would result in:

327 thousand fewer child marriages; 383 thousand fewer adolescent pregnancies; and 3600 fewer maternal deaths. An economic return on investment of 21.

The model is now being tested beyond Nigeria. Mahamadou Sanoussi Issa, presenting findings from Niger, said CARE has been implementing the Re-IMAGINE programme since 2025 as a replication study of Pathways.

He informed that the initiative, a cluster randomised controlled trial, targets more than 5,000 unmarried, out-of-school girls across 95 communes in Niger.

Luciana Leite of the Accelerate Research Hub, a research group based across the Universities of Oxford and Cape Town, presented a summary of results from return-on-investment modelling using two complementary CGE-designed programmes: Pathways to Choice, which targets out-of-school unmarried girls, and the Adolescent Girls Initiative, which supports girls enrolled in school, particularly during the critical transition between primary and secondary education.

She said the modelling shows that a combined investment of $114m into the two programmes, reaching approximately 1.1 million girls, would generate broad societal benefits, beginning with increased educational attainment, as girls are more likely to stay in school, delay marriage and postpone childbirth.

According to her, these outcomes lead to lower protection risks, healthier mothers and children, and reduced rates of stunting. Over time, they translate into higher lifetime earnings for the girls, ultimately strengthening economic growth at both community and national levels.

Leite added that the model estimates a 4:1 return on investment, based on education gains alone, underscoring the economic case for scaling interventions that delay child marriage and expand opportunities for adolescent girls.