Kenya’s inflation rises for first time in three months amid Middle East crisis

…edges up to 4.4% in March

Kenya’s inflation rose for the first time in three months in March 2026, as higher food and energy-related costs began to reflect spillovers from escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Data released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday showed annual inflation ticked up to 4.4 percent from a seven-month low of 4.3 percent in February. On a month-on-month basis, consumer prices rose by 0.5 percent, accelerating from a 0.2 percent increase.

The increase was largely driven by higher prices in food and non-alcoholic beverages (7.7 percent), transport (3.8 percent), and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (2.0 percent). Together, these categories account for more than 57 percent of the consumer basket.

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Transport costs in East Africa’s biggest economy rose at a slightly slower pace compared to February, supported by government fuel procurement measures that helped cushion sharp price spikes, despite reports of temporary shortages among some independent fuel marketers.

President William Ruto has recently rolled out measures aimed at shielding the economy from supply disruptions linked to the Middle East crisis.

The ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has pushed global crude prices closer to $100 per barrel. Disruptions to tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz—which carries about a fifth of global oil supply—have heightened concerns over prolonged supply constraints.

For import-dependent economies such as Kenya, the effects have been swift. Rising fuel costs are feeding into transport, food, and production expenses, threatening to reverse recent disinflation gains and erode consumer purchasing power.

In response to easing inflation earlier in the year, the Central Bank of Kenya has cut its benchmark lending rate for a tenth consecutive time, lowering it by 25 basis points to 8.75 percent from nine percent in February. The bank is expected to hold its next Monetary Policy Committee meeting in April.