Rivers’ guber aspirants shun declaration amid uncertainty over Fubara’s next move

Weeks before political parties are due to hold governorship primaries in line with the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) 2027 election timetable, most would‑be aspirants in Rivers State have shied away from formally declaring their interest in the race.

Analysts say the hesitation stems largely from uncertainty over whetherRivers’ guber aspirants shun declaration amid uncertainty over Fubara’s next movea, the All Progressives Congress (APC) incumbent, will be allowed to contest a second term.

Fubara, who defected from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) to the APC after his impeachment battle, is technically in line for re-election in 2027, which INEC has now fixed for Saturday, 6 February 2027.

The commission’s revised timetable requires parties to conclude primaries and internal disputes between 23 April and 30 May 2026.

Fubara’s bid is, however, clouded by his fallout with Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), who is his political godfather.

The fallout has reportedly been resolved as ‘a father and son matter’ following President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s intervention. But Wike has repeatedly described backing Fubara’s second-term bid as political suicide for him.

The minister, while addressing supporters during his tour of the 23 local government areas of the state early in the year, repeatedly said, “We don’t know who to vote for yet, but we know who not to vote for,” fuelling speculation that he is positioning an alternative candidate.

Despite the inclination of the APC to ensure a second-term ticket for its first-term governors, the possibility of Fubara picking the party’s ticket for 2027 has become a hotly discussed political topic in Rivers State.

Analysts doubt Fubara will get the nod to fly the APC flag in 2027 given Wike’s strong influence within the party, even though he is not yet a card-carrying member of the APC.

Wike has been acknowledged by analysts as perhaps, the most influential politician in the state, with a strong say on who picks up what political position.

His strong grip on the state’s ‘political structure’—seen through the APC and PDP state chapters’ formation of the Rainbow Coalition—has enabled his camp to produce chairmen of 22 local government areas, 29 state House members, senators, House of Representatives members, APC zonal and state executives, federal appointees, among others.

Emeka Chukwu, an analyst resident in Obio/Akpor, said: “Wike’s grip has silenced potential aspirants. Nobody wants to aspire when Wike has not given him permission to do so.”

Magnus Abe, newly appointed chairman of the Board of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and touted as a likely successor to Siminalayi Fubara, was reported to have shunned calls to contest.

Social media posts claim his response to calls for him to contest was: “Every day Magnus Abe this, Magnus Abe that! You self try contest something na! Make we rest.”

Abe, who represented Rivers South East in the 8th Senate, had repeatedly tried to become Rivers State governor. His 2023 attempt against PDP’s Fubara and APC’s Tonye Cole failed.

Others rumoured as likely aspirants include Boma Iyaye, NDDC executive director of Finance and Administration; Dax Alabo George-Kelly, BCDA executive secretary; Dumo Lulu-Briggs, businessman and Kalabari chief; Felix Obuah, former RIWAMA sole administrator, and Martin Amaewhule, state House of Assembly speaker.

Iyaye, a Wike ally, is being strongly touted as the FCT minister’s preferred replacement for Fubara. The NDDC Executive Director of Finance and Administration, who hails from Ogu/Bolo LGA, satisfies the ‘Riverine/Upland Arrangement,’ which balances political positions between the state’s riverine and upland areas.

Sources claim Wike, during his tour of the state early in the year, indicated he is favourably disposed to Iyaye taking over at the Brick House (Rivers State Government House).

Iyaye, like the others, has not indicated his intention to run for the office of governor.

Despite this, Fubara’s yet-to-be-declared bid remains strong. His supporters, perhaps backed by a sizeable percentage of citizens, vow ‘to pay APC back with its own coin’ if the party denies him a second-term ticket.

Analysts further suggest that the Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi-led African Democratic Congress (ADC) in Rivers State might be the ultimate beneficiary of the silent faceoff between Fubara and his godfather, Wike.

As of now, no governorship aspirant has emerged from the ADC platform in the state.

Observers say the party might be waiting for “marginalised defectors from the APC and PDP.” They add these could include state Governor Siminalayi Fubara.