Of brutal politics, IPAC worries, and ‘orphan’ governors in Nigeria’s political shifting ground

The wheeling and dealing associated with the Nigerian brand of politics have begun. While some are wailing over their bruised noses, others are rejoicing triumphantly. In the estimation of some Nigerians, ours is a game that is won and lost long before the umpire’s whistle goes for its commencement. Joash Amupitan to the rescue?

There are just a few “orphan” governors in Nigeria at the moment; for now, they have resisted the adoption of a foster father. Many are asking, will their anchor hold…?

 

‘No brother in the jungle’

Nigeria is at the verge of a fresh round of general election. Political activities are being given priority even in the corridors of power. Politics in Nigeria is brutal. Its winner-takes-all nature makes it a “conscience-less” game. When the politicians sip the opium, they recognise no brother in the jungle!

In the idiom, “All’s fair in love and war” which originated from “The rules of fair play do not apply in love and war” written by John Lyly (an influential English playwright, novelist, and member of Parliament during the Elizabethan era), there is actually no place for sympathy in politics.

The aphorism suggests that in intense, high-stakes situations- romance and conflict- conventional rules, ethics, and morality do not apply. The maxim is used to justify underhand actions, and it implies that survival or victory justifies any means, from deception to betrayal.

As the parties are getting ready for the “war” ahead as it is the case with the Nigerian brand of election, many parties are getting increasingly concerned about some of the rules and regulations being rolled out by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The parties are also not comfortable with some of the inclusions in the recently passed and signed Electoral Act 2026, which they believe put them at an incredible disadvantage.

To get the point straight, the nation’s bicameral legislature (National Assembly), largely populated by members of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), had recently passed an acrimonious Electoral Act, removing certain provisions in the 2026 Act and replacing them with some others.

One of the contentious provisions is that parties are only allowed to elect their candidates through direct primaries or consensus, not indirect primaries.

There is also a slew of guidelines rolled out Tuesday by the INEC, some of which the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) has described as “flawed and exclusionary.”

Don’t forget, IPAC is the umbrella body for all registered political parties in Nigeria.

The group pointed out the absence of clear provisions for mandatory electronic transmission of results. It also pointed out that real-time transmission remained critical to restoring public trust in elections.

IPAC therefore, demanded the restoration of mandatory electronic transmission of results to the INEC Result Viewing (IReV) portal immediately after announcement at polling units, stronger penalties for vote buying, and the establishment of an Electoral Offences Commission.

One other requirement that really irritated the IPAC is the request for submission of detailed membership registers, including their National Identification Numbers (NINs) within a limited timeframe.

IPAC is particularly piqued that this demand is coming too late for an exercise that is known to be cumbersome. It pointed to the knee jerk experiences the NIN registration exercise has suffered across the country, which is known to all. It described the requirement as “impractical and potentially exclusionary”.

The opposition parties are looking at all these as intentional hurdles placed on their way to incapacitate them ahead of the election.

Looking at the demand for membership database, the truth is that this does not determine the pattern of voting in any election. Who says that all members of a party may vote for their party? Some people are just card-carrying members of their party, but in the actual election, when they face the cubicle, they vote for a person of their choice that is not their party member.

Before the 2023 general election, the Labour Party (LP) was largely unknown with a negligible number on its database as members. By the time the presidential election held, the membership did not grow exponentially. Those who voted for its presidential candidate at that time were not only members of the LP, but non-party members across the country.

On the issue of direct primaries and consensus, observers believe that the ruling party may have adopted this to weed off potential fifth columnists and saboteurs who may decide to toe a rebellious line by challenging party decision during their convention. The party leadership would want to see all delegates at the presidential primary “show their faces.”

It is a case of “if you want ‘Jagaban’ (for instance) to be our sole candidate show your face.” In that case, the possibility of a Judas somewhere thumb-printing another aspirant’s name will not arise.

The consensus option also gives the APC the opportunity to impose any candidate of its choice on the people. The politics of god-fatherism is still very much with us.

One famous political mantra that President Bola Tinubu is noted for today in matters of politics is that “power is not served a la carte.” This emphasises that political success requires active struggle, strategic effort, and persistence rather than being given freely.

In 2023, he urged his supporters to fight for, grab, and retain power through strategic action.

Going by that mantra, it therefore means, that political creed is neither Bible nor Quaran the adherents of which play with empathy or conscience. In politics, there is no conscience; it is simply brutal; there is no fairness.

How is there fairness when those who benefitted from one form of electoral malfeasance or the other yesterday are the same people blocking others from accessing that route they themselves took to hug political limelight?

In 2022, some current office holders participated in more than one primary. Although they lost in one, they rushed to their constituencies and senatorial districts to arm-twist those who had already emerged winners in lawful primaries. But in order to deaden their conscience, as it were, they are saying today that once a politician contests a particular position and fails, such an individual cannot move into another party that is yet to hold its primaries to pick a ticket.

The ball is firmly in the INEC’s court; it is left for the Commission to wear its thinking cap and play with all the carefulness that goal scoring demands. Posterity beckons!

 

The orphan governors in Nigeria

In countries where politics is played for the purpose of good governance, politicians who do well are worthy of double honour. But in Nigeria, failures are rewarded above those who do well. Today, excellent performance is not a guarantee to win a re-election. It is all about having a tentacle that runs very deep into the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja.

Across the country today, there are about four orphan governors who have resisted the pressure to adopt a foster father. It is so bad these days that everyone wants to “keep up with Joneses’, nobody wants to stand alone, even when it is more honourable to maintain one’s stance and “be yourself.”

We have one of the orphans in Abia. He is Governor Alex Otti. This man is unarguably one of best performing governors in Nigeria today. This is being attested to by even members of the opposition. Otti, within three years, has changed positively the story of Abia State. Yet, there has been enormous pressure on him to defect to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Those mounting the pressure are not bothered about good governance, it is just about aligning with the centre for the sake of it.

There is another orphan in Oyo State. He is Seyi Makinde. He is today, the “second man standing” in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), where most of his colleagues have jumped ship for political exigencies.

Bala Mohammed, governor of Bauchi State, is also the “second man standing” in the PDP. He was said to be planning to defect, but he came out a few days ago to poohpooh the report. Today, he is an orphan in the Nigerian Governors’ Forum (NGF). Bala is seriously being pressured to join the APC. The question is, will his anchor continue to hold?

Ademola Adeleke, governor of Osun State, recently moved from the PDP to the Accord Party (AP). Reports had it that Adeleke was initially planning to join the APC, but because of the many political foes allegedly “baying for his blood” in the broom association, he changed his mind.

Governor Chukwuma Soludo of Anambra State is a member of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) in body, but he is APC in spirit. This is not hidden. He is not one of the orphans, but a kind of political “hermaphrodite.”

The pathetic part of moving from party A to party B does not translate to sterling performance. The belief is that those who moved did so to guarantee their re-election in a country where elections are not won on the mandate of the people based on good governance, but based on might.

There are state governors who moved into the APC claiming that they did so to attract more federal presence to their states or zones. For some, it may be true, but for many, it is sheer bunkum.

Kano State governor appears to be enjoying project approvals for his defection. This cannot be said of Akwa Ibom even though Governor Umo Eno made newspaper headlines when he said that he moved to the APC to get President Tinubu bring to life the Ibom Deep Sea Port. Today, Governor Eno is still hoping against hope that someday, the project will fly.

One wonders what was running through his mind when he witnessed the signing of the 746million Pounds deal struck by Nigeria with the United Kingdom to develop Lagos ports.

Moving from one political party to another does not guarantee electoral success; in ideal democracies, performance does.