How the US/Iran war is impacting Nigerias labour market 

His assessment underscores a growing concern that the current geopolitical volatility is no longer just a diplomatic or military issue, but a fundamental threat to the global workforce.

According to Ogunsanya, the ripple effects are already visible in the cooling of international recruitment.

 He points out that “travel restrictions and reduced cross‑border activity have diminished manpower demand across key sectors such as aviation, energy and gas, tourism, and hospitality.” As a result, many organisations have hit the pause button on expansion.

 “Many organisations have suspended their global hiring efforts as they reassess workforce strategies amid rising operational costs and business survival pressures,” he says, noting that even the energy sector is vulnerable to “increased attrition and potential downsizing as they struggle to maintain business continuity.”

Oluyemi Adeosun, PhD, an economist suggests that these disruptions extend far beyond the immediate price of fuel. He argues that the conflict hits the labour market through a combination of “rising energy prices, disrupted shipping and aviation routes, weaker business confidence, and tighter recruitment conditions.” For countries like Nigeria that rely on exporting talent, the consequences are particularly stark. Adeosun notes: “As firms face higher operating costs and greater uncertainty, they are likely to slow hiring, delay cross-border recruitment, reduce contract work, and become more cautious about relocating staff.”

He warns that “for migrant-sending countries such as Nigeria, this could mean weaker remittance inflows, more pressure on domestic unemployment, and added strain on households already facing inflation.”

However, providing a more localised perspective from the energy industry, Bosola Olaleye, a HR specialist offers a more optimistic outlook for the domestic front. She argues that “for oil and gas companies, the price increase in Brent crude oil is at their advantage, but only if Nigeria meets its crude oil quota.” From her vantage point within the industry, she maintains a steady outlook: “I don’t foresee any job loss in the industry.”

Despite the pressures of global instability, the current situation may unexpectedly drive Nigeria towards greater self-sufficiency. High import costs are fast-tracking the development of domestic oil and gas refining. This shift is anticipated to generate thousands of secure jobs in engineering, maintenance, and logistics.

According to Olaleye, the disrupted global trade is likely to spark a “Buy Nigeria” movement, benefitting local manufacturers. As foreign raw materials become too expensive, domestic industries have a strong incentive to source resources locally. By reducing the reliance on costly imports, these tensions may accelerate the growth of a resilient, internal industrial base, ultimately securing the local labour market against future international shocks.