From 36 to Six: Can PDP survive the 10th Senate?

The question of whether the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) will still maintain a meaningful presence in the Senate before the end of the 10th National Assembly is increasingly becoming a subject of political speculation, following an unprecedented wave of defections that has steadily depleted the party’s numbers in the upper chamber.

What began as isolated defections has turned into a political migration that now threatens to erase the once-dominant opposition from the Senate.

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From 36 senators to single digits

When the 10th Senate was inaugurated in June 2023, the PDP entered the chamber with 36 senators, making it the largest opposition bloc against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

Less than three years later, that number has collapsed dramatically.

The latest wave of defections saw three senators from Adamawa State; Amos Yohanna (Adamawa North), Aminu Iya Abbas (Adamawa Central) and Ikra Aliyu Bilbis (Zamfara Central), formally announce their defection to the APC during plenary.

Their letters were read by Senate President Godswill Akpabio, after which the lawmakers were ceremonially moved from the minority aisle to the majority side of the chamber.

Their defection came barely 24 hours after Ipalibo Banigo, representing Rivers West, also dumped the PDP for the APC.

By the time the dust settled, the PDP’s Senate membership had fallen to 14, while the APC’s strength climbed to 84.

More defections deepen the crisis

The political hemorrhage did not stop there.

In another dramatic development, Thursday several PDP senators later exited the party, further shrinking its ranks. Among those who left were: Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto South), Binos Yaroe (Adamawa South), Lawal Adamu (Kaduna Central) and Austin Akobundu (Abia Central).

Most of them moved to the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Olaleye Oyewunmi (Osun West) defected to the Accord Party.

With these exits, the PDP’s presence in the Senate plummeted to just six senators, raising serious concerns about the party’s ability to function effectively as an opposition force.

The Senate’s new political map

As it currently stands, the political configuration of the 106 serving senators is as follows:

APC – 87, ADC — 9, PDP — 6, APGA — 1, NDC — 1, NNPP — 1, Accord Party — 1, SDP —0 and Labour Party — 0

The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) is represented by Seriake Dickson of Bayelsa West.

Meanwhile, three Senate seats remain vacant, leaving the total membership at 106 instead of the constitutionally required 109. The vacancies were created by the deaths of: Godiya Akwashiki (Nasarawa North), Okechukwu Ezea (Enugu North) and Barinada Mpigi (Rivers South East).

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Akpabio: Defections unprecedented

Reacting to the latest defections, Senate President Akpabio described the development as historically significant.

He said the scale of the defections into the APC was unprecedented since Nigeria gained independence in 1960. According to him, the current political movement mirrors what happened during the 8th Senate in 2018 when several lawmakers left the APC for the PDP, including then Senate President Bukola Saraki.

“To me what is happening now between PDP and APC senators is more of a one–one draw,” Akpabio said.

“In 2018 during the 8th National Assembly, about 30 senators defected in one day from APC to PDP.

Now during the 10th National Assembly, it is the other way round.”

He attributed the defections to what he described as improved governance under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The Senate Leader, Opeyemi Bamidele, also welcomed the defections, arguing that lawmakers were joining the ruling party because they believe the country is moving in the right direction.

“The defectors are not daft,” he said.

“They have seen that something is working in the country for the good of all, which they believe must be among the active participants within the APC caucus.”

Why senators are leaving PDP

Several of the defecting lawmakers have cited internal divisions, leadership disputes and prolonged litigations within the PDP as reasons for abandoning the party.

In her defection letter, Banigo pointed to the persistent crisis within the opposition party.

“Given the prevailing internal divisions, protracted leadership disputes, and ongoing litigations within the PDP which have adversely affected cohesion, I am convinced that the APC offers a more stable and progressive platform,” she said.

She also explained that her decision aligned with her support for President Tinubu’s reforms and development initiatives.

Is the PDP disappearing from the Senate?

Political observers say the shrinking numbers raise an uncomfortable question for the opposition: Will the PDP still exist as a viable Senate bloc by the end of the 10th Assembly in 2027?

If defections continue at the current pace, the party could be reduced to a symbolic minority, weakening its ability to influence legislation, challenge executive proposals, or shape parliamentary debates.

Already, the chamber has witnessed the near-total disappearance of other parties that entered the Senate with multiple seats. Both the Labour Party and the Social Democratic Party now have zero representation, despite starting the 10th Senate with eight and two senators respectively.

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A shifting opposition landscape

Interestingly, while the PDP is shrinking, the ADC — which had no senator at the beginning of the 10th Senate, has emerged as a growing alternative opposition platform with nine lawmakers.

This shift suggests that the opposition space within the Senate is reconfiguring rather than disappearing, though the PDP appears to be losing its historic dominance.

For a party that governed Nigeria for 16 years and once held commanding legislative majorities, the current Senate arithmetic signals one of the most dramatic political declines in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic.

Whether the remaining PDP senators will hold the line or join the ongoing migration may ultimately determine whether the party survives the 10th Senate with any meaningful voice at all.