Nigeria’s headline inflation eases marginally to 15.06%  

Nigeria’s headline inflation eased slightly to 15.06 percent year-on-year (YoY), however the spike in its month-on-month (MoM) figure to 2.01 percent shows price pressures associated with Ramadan, a combination of early bulk-buying by households and reduced farming activities drives prices for key staples.

The  National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the Consumer Price Index declined to  15.06  percent in  February 2026, from 15.10  percent in January 2026.

Month-on-Month, headline inflation saw an upward movement to 2.01  percent from -2.88 percent the previous month.

February’s inflation reading reflects an acceleration in both food and core baskets, which increased to 4.69 percent and 0.89 percent respectively, from -6.02 percent and -1.69 percent respectively.

The upward trend in month-on-month food inflation from percent in January was a result of price pressure on food staples during Ramadan.

“Food inflation, however, may edge higher on a month-on-month basis, as Ramadan-related stockpiling and reduced farming activities drive prices for key staples, thereby exerting upward pressure on monthly headline inflation,” analysts at Meristem said.

Meristems commodities price tracker showed rising prices for staples, halting months-long declines in staples like maize and sorghum. Paddy rice and Soya beans posted stronger price increases.

This drop is far from many analysts’ projections of a decline in the inflation figure to 13-14 percent levels.

“ We project January’s headline inflation at 13.48 percent year-on-year,” analysts at Merristem noted in a recent inflation report.

Food inflation saw the largest jump month-on-month by 10.70 percent while core inflation rose by 2.5 percent

According to analysts at Meristem, in February 2026, inflationary pressures continued to moderate, supported by relatively contained core price pressures.

“Core inflation is expected to remain on a downward trend year-on-year,  supported by cheaper fuel prices and the stronger Naira. Although the index could stabilise on a month-on-month basis, rather than contract further,” research analysts at Meristem mentioned in the report.

They stated that  PMS prices eased slightly in February after Dangote Refinery cut its ex-depot price by N25 per litre to N774 from N799 in January. This should help moderate transportation and energy costs within the core index. Additionally, the Naira appreciated by 4.32 percent month-on-month in February, averaging N1,355.34 per dollar in the official window, from N1,416.52 per dollar in January.