Nigeria’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 general election may be tilting toward a two-party contest between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the emerging African Democratic Congress (ADC), as the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party (LP) continue to grapple with internal crises that observers say could threaten their survival before the next national poll.
Political analysts and party insiders warn that if the ongoing leadership battles, factional disputes, and prolonged litigation in the two opposition parties remain unresolved, the 2027 presidential election could effectively become a straight contest between the APC and the ADC.
Since after the 2023 polls, both the PDP and the LP have been engulfed in internal conflicts that have weakened party structures and deepened divisions among their leaders. These disputes range from leadership tussles and disciplinary battles to disagreements over party direction and control of key organs.
The recurring legal battles have affected the PDP’s ability to project unity and rebuild public confidence, with many state chapters now in disarray.
Read also: Nigeria must confront the rising threat of political violence before 2027
In the last one year, the party has also been hit by defections of its governors and chieftains to other parties, especially the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
More than eight PDP governors elected on the party’s platform in 2023 have reportedly joined the APC. The party has lost governors in Akwa Ibom State, Enugu State, Plateau State, Taraba State, Bayelsa and Rivers State to the APC, while Dauda Lawal, the governor of Zamfara State, has also moved to the APC.
Within the PDP, tensions remain high following the fallout from the 2023 presidential election and the persistent rivalry among leading party figures.
The situation has been further complicated by the influence of key actors, including the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, whose political moves continue to shape the party’s internal dynamics.
Perhaps, last Monday’s judgement by a three-member panel of the appellate court, which nullified the party’s national convention in Ibadan has further made the crisis intriguing with less than a year to the presidential poll.
However, many members of the party believe Wike and his loyalists wield significant influence capable of determining whether reconciliation within the PDP will succeed or fail.
“I think it is clear that the PDP and LP may never be the same again for now, may be, after this election in 2027.
For the PDP, there is a calculated plan by some people to bury the party and you can see many chieftains, almost all the governors have left. So, what are you saying, they can’t compete,” Sunday Oluyemi, a political analyst, said.
Many party members said it was apparent that the PDP is at a crossroads and that the only solution is for its leaders to come together and agree on a path forward.
“Court can’t resolve this crisis; our leaders need to come together and meet on the way forward,” Shola Ogunsola, a PDP chieftain, told BusinessDay.
Yemi Ladipo, a political analyst, also told BusinessDay that anyone hoping to secure the party’s ticket may be “groping in the dark” as the future currently appears uncertain for the PDP.
“It is a difficult situation for PDP members. The judiciary and the electoral umpire, INEC, cannot allow any illegality to hold sway. That implies none of the PDP’s candidates will get recognition, especially those of the Turaki camp, which have been labelled as having flagrantly disregarded court rulings,” Ladipo stated.
Speaking further, Ladipo argued that unless something strategic is done to broker a truce between the rival camps and find a political solution to the impasse, the PDP could face further decline.
However, critics within the party accuse the former Rivers State governor of maintaining a hardline stance that has made compromise difficult.
Although several reconciliation efforts have been initiated by senior party leaders, many observers remain skeptical that the warring factions will reach a durable settlement anytime soon.
A former deputy national chairman of the PDP, Eddy Olafeso, acknowledged that the crisis within the party was serious but insisted that the PDP still possesses the institutional strength to overcome its challenges.
Olafeso said the party’s long history and national spread remained strong assets that should not be underestimated.
He argued that while disagreements are common in political organisations, the PDP has historically found ways to resolve its internal disputes.
According to him, the current challenges should be seen as part of the party’s internal democratic process rather than evidence of imminent collapse.
However, some political analysts disagree, warning that the scale and intensity of the current conflicts may have far-reaching consequences if not urgently addressed.
They note that the PDP has experienced repeated cycles of crisis since losing the presidency in 2015, and the inability to rebuild a united opposition front has weakened its national appeal.
Similarly, the Labour Party, which emerged as a major political force during the 2023 election cycle, is now facing its own leadership crisis that has triggered multiple court cases and competing claims to authority within the party.
The internal conflict within the LP has created uncertainty over the legitimacy of party executives and the control of party structures across the country.
Political observers warn that prolonged legal battles and factional disputes could undermine the party’s ability to organise effectively ahead of the 2027 elections.
The LP had experienced a surge in popularity during the last general election, largely driven by urban voters, young people, and reform-minded citizens seeking alternatives to Nigeria’s traditional political parties.
However, the ongoing leadership struggle has raised concerns among supporters that the momentum built during the 2023 campaign could dissipate before the next electoral cycle.
Beyond the internal disputes themselves, another controversial narrative has begun to circulate within political circles — the allegation that the crises in both the PDP and the LP may not be entirely organic.
Some party members claim that the instability within the opposition parties is being deliberately encouraged by external forces seeking to weaken them ahead of the 2027 election.
According to this line of argument, sustained factional battles could ultimately prevent the two parties from presenting credible presidential candidates or mounting effective nationwide campaigns.
While there is no definitive evidence to support these claims, the speculation reflects growing distrust within Nigeria’s political environment.
Political strategists say the perception alone could further damage the credibility of the opposition parties if they fail to demonstrate unity and organisational stability.
“It sad the way democracy has become in Nigeria, it just makes the democratic not open for all and that is what this government want,” Ola Oluso, public affairs analyst said.
Against this backdrop, the African Democratic Congress is increasingly being mentioned as a possible beneficiary of the turmoil within the PDP and the LP.
Although historically regarded as a smaller political platform, the ADC has recently attracted interest from political actors searching for alternative vehicles for national ambition.
Some analysts believe the party could emerge as a rallying point for politicians who may defect from the PDP or LP if their internal crises continue unresolved.
The possibility of such realignments has sparked conversations within political circles about the emergence of a new opposition coalition ahead of 2027.
In contrast, the ruling APC appears comparatively stable at the national level, despite occasional disagreements within its ranks. The party ha seen the defection of many chieftains from the PDP and LP joining it ranks in recent months.
Many analysts see the party has the only credible platform ahead 2027.
Since returning to power in the 2023 election, the party has continued to consolidate its control over federal institutions and expand its influence across several states.
Political analysts argue that this institutional advantage could prove decisive if opposition parties remain fragmented.
They note that Nigeria’s electoral system often favours parties with strong national structures and unified leadership, conditions that the APC currently enjoys.
Nevertheless, some observers caution against prematurely writing off either the PDP or the Labour Party.
Nigeria’s political history shows that party fortunes can shift rapidly, particularly as elections approach and alliances begin to form.
The PDP, for instance, still maintains a wide national presence with governors, lawmakers, and longstanding grassroots networks across the country.
Likewise, the Labour Party retains a significant support base among younger voters and urban constituencies, which could become politically influential if effectively mobilised.
For both parties, however, the immediate challenge remains the same — resolving internal conflicts and rebuilding public confidence.
Without unity and clear leadership, analysts warn that both parties risk losing relevance in the evolving political contest.
As the 2027 election cycle gradually approaches, attention will increasingly focus on whether reconciliation efforts within the PDP and the Labour Party can succeed.
The coming months may prove critical in determining whether Nigeria’s opposition landscape remains pluralistic or contracts into a narrower contest dominated by fewer parties.
If the crises persist, the scenario of a largely two-party contest between the APC and the ADC may become a defining feature of the next presidential election.
“It is part of democracy, others will have to sit up as the next general election are coming and they have to proof their mettle to be able to and get their bearings right, especially the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) that used to be the ruling party,” Sola Latu, political scientist said.
“Election is coming and they have to proof their mettle to be able to and get their bearings right, especially the PDP that used to be the ruling party. It’s part of the game,” he added.
He however added that if reconciliation efforts gain traction and political alliances begin to form, the 2027 race could yet evolve into a broader and more competitive electoral contest.
Join BusinessDay whatsapp Channel, to stay up to date
Open In Whatsapp
