A summit to sell a product 

In the ideal world, the names of the new federal government ministers would have been released in time for last week’s 21st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES) in Abuja. It was not to be, so delegates were fed some tasty morsels of likely government policy. There were also logistical implications. Several speakers could not attend because they were being vetted in the Senate down the road or had a role in the vetting process. That said, this was a better conference than most, with the first day the high point due to the contribution of the vice president, Yemi Osinbajo.

He explained that he has a loose coordinating role for the economy. Having heard his measured performance, this was comforting. He set out some of the social investment programmes: free tertiary education for students of science and technology as well as teacher training; funding for MSMEs which reaches as far as market traders; and the cash transfers for the poorest. Nigeria watchers who still hope for a government of free marketers should take a cold bath.

Osinbajo tackled the issue of corruption and has some standing in the field of judicial reform, having driven it successfully in Lagos State as attorney-general. He noted that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission likes to pursue its cases in Lagos for the speed and quality of the justice administered. Politicians rarely defend corruption, an exception being a son of the president of Equatorial Guinea in a US courtroom. Naturally they condemn it, some more convincingly than others. We thought that the vice president provided hope.

On the second day, the summit was told by the former president of Georgia that the dragon could be slain. He explained that his country was ranked on a par with Nigeria in the relevant indices in 2003 but that, ten years later, Georgia was ranked among the least corrupt developing countries.

Our first impression of the summit therefore was that the political leadership on show set the right tone. Our second was that the public sector is not deaf to the demands of the private sector. At a breakout session on energy policy on the second day, several panelists decried cash call arrears and the flaws of the unincorporated oil joint ventures. While we were listening to the discussion, a wire service broke the news that the NNPC plans to experiment with self-financing joint ventures along the lines of Nigeria LNG.

The panelists would hope that the corporation and the administration will listen to other demands from their side: that fuel subsidies are scrapped, that gas pricing is based on a willing buyer/willing seller basis, that the NNPC is forced to sell assets it does not develop, and that operators no longer require approval for all contracts with a value above US$5m. The Nigeria head of an electrical multinational was sufficiently confident to say that his company would be building power plants in 100 years’ time.

Our third impression was that the approach to the budget exercise has changed. On an institutional level, it was clear that the Budget Office and the National Planning Commission are now working closely together, if not in harmony. The former commissioner for planning and budget in Lagos State advised that the close ties be formalized and recalled that on his watch the two heads (for planning and budget) reported to the same person (himself). We were also told by the chairman of the NESG not to be intimidated by talk of zero-based budgeting. He commented that the private sector operates similarly although it refers to the budget process being driven by strategy rather than needs.

Finally, we cite two observations by the new director-general at the Budget Office. He advocated engaging the more willing legislators in the budget process at an early stage rather than surprising them when the proposals of the executive are formally submitted to the assembly on behalf of the presidency. He also suggested that the 2016 budget will propose an increase in recurrent spending because of the new administration’s plans for social investment. (We are confident that he was not hinting at higher deficit financing and that an increase in revenue collection will compensate.)

No conference is complete without some memorable statistics. We offer three. A World Bank study shows that 41 per cent of Nigerian businesses generate their own electricity. Six out of ten students at a leading Ghanaian university are Nigerian. GDP per head in Singapore soared from US$2,505 in 1975 to US$53,244 in 2015.

One purpose of such a summit is to sell a product to investors (Nigeria, in this case). The announcement of the new ministers is imminent. In its absence, the event offered delegates enough meat, in our view, to keep them interested until the new Federal Executive Council starts to flesh out its policies.

By way of negatives, the sessions with governors disappointed and that with those from the south was adversarial. The title of the summit was clumsy for covering competitiveness, inclusive growth and sustainability, and too on-message but this is a personal preference.