Just as Nigeria has been urging exporters to look beyond oil, a shift in U.S. trade policy is testing how resilient that strategy really is.
The United States has imposed a 10 percent baseline tariff on imports, after previously proposing a 15 percent rate.
The announcement by Donald Trump came after the Supreme Court of the United States invalidated earlier emergency trade actions.
For Nigeria, this development is more than a headline about U.S. politics. It touches the heart of an economic ambition, to earn more foreign exchange from non-oil exports and reduce pressure on the naira.
Read also: Unsafe Food, Uncertain Markets: Nigeria’s hidden export risk
Global trade tensions are once again tilting toward uncertainty.
“In terms of uncertainty, we’re back to where we were last year,” said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, speaking to the BBC Today programme.
He warned that the risk of “a real fully fledged tariff war” is now higher than it was in 2025.
That warning has direct implications for Nigeria. The United States remains one of the country’s top export markets, and fresh tariffs even at 10 percent are testing the resilience of Nigeria’s non-oil export strategy.
In 2024, Nigeria exported $5.91 billion worth of goods to the United States, making it the country’s third-largest export destination after Spain and India, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity.
In the first half of 2025, the U.S. accounted for 8.42 percent of Nigeria’s non-oil exports, based on figures from the Nigerian Export Promotion Council.
Oil still dominates trade flows, generating more than $40 billion in export receipts in 2024. But policymakers have increasingly positioned agricultural and processed goods — cocoa, sesame seeds and cashew nuts among them as the future of Nigeria’s external earnings.
That is where the concern lies.
Many of these products previously enjoyed duty-free access under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a U.S. trade programme designed to support exports from sub-Saharan Africa. The new universal tariff effectively weakens that advantage.
While the tariff has raised concerns, analysts say the impact will depend largely on the structure of Nigeria’s exports and how exposed they are to the U.S. market.
“There are two ways to look at this,” said Marvis Oduogu, head of taxation and international trade at Stren & Blan Partners. “Does a tariff automatically reduce demand? Not necessarily. And it depends on how important the U.S. market is for that particular product.”
In practical terms, the level of dependence matters. If the U.S. is the primary buyer of a product, exporters could feel the impact quickly through lower orders or thinner margins.
But if the U.S. is just one of several destinations, shipments may be redirected to other markets with minimal disruption.
Beyond trade volumes, however, the broader concern is foreign exchange stability.
Yvonne Afolabi, a transfer pricing expert, said the bigger risk lies in dollar inflows.
“If Nigerian exports to the U.S. become more expensive, demand could weaken, reducing dollar inflows and tightening foreign exchange supply,” she said. “Lower FX inflows would likely increase pressure on the naira, especially given Nigeria’s existing external vulnerabilities.”
Nigeria remains heavily reliant on export receipts to stabilise its currency. With limited dollar supply already a persistent challenge, even modest disruptions to non-oil earnings can amplify exchange rate volatility.
The country’s structural weakness adds to the concern. Nigeria ranked 127th out of 130 economies on the Economic Complexity Index in 2024, according to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, a reflection of how concentrated its exports remain in primary commodities.
At the same time, some analysts argue that tariffs do not automatically spell disaster for exporters. Although tariffs are paid at the point of entry into the U.S., the cost is often passed on to final consumers.
“The final burden of tariffs is typically borne by consumers,” Oduogu said. “Over time, American buyers may absorb much of the cost.”
Read also: Nigeria’s exporters pivot to China amid US uncertainty
Still, the broader lesson for Nigeria goes beyond whether the tariff remains at 10 percent or rises to 15 percent. The episode highlights a deeper vulnerability: diversification in products does not fully protect an economy if its export markets are concentrated in countries where trade policy can shift rapidly.
Regional trade initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area are increasingly seen as part of the answer. Expanding intra-African trade could reduce reliance on advanced economies where political cycles often influence tariff regimes.
For now, the 10 percent tariff does not constitute an immediate shock to Nigeria’s export outlook. But the quick reversal from a proposed 15 percent levy and the effective dilution of AGOA preferences is a reminder that external conditions can change swiftly.
For a country trying to anchor foreign exchange stability in a broader export base, the real test is not only how much it exports, but how widely it spreads its risks.
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