Northern economy and the tightening grip of terror and banditry

For Fifty years after independence, Northern Nigerian economy, which hinged on agriculture as its mainstay, startlingly thrived to global admiration. From the 1960s to the first decade of the twenty-first century the current foundations of the entire country’s economy, most-notably, the oil refineries, were laid with the proceeds of groundnut, cotton, livestock, tin and columbite trade between Nigeria and Europe.

Even with oil replacing these agricultural products as the mainstay of the country’s economy, Northern Nigeria swam in the enviable pride of developing on the a very sustainable agriculture-based economy, with agricultural and livestock production and trade multiplying severally.

Alas! Retrogression set in on the decades-old glory, with the advent of various forms of terror – Boko Haram insurgency/I SWAP terror in the North-East; banditry and kidnapping in the North-West; and banditry/kidnapping; farmer-herder clash, and now Lukurawa/ Al-Ansur militants in the North-Central.

“Indeed, the northern economy is under the grip of terror groups that instil fear into the minds of the locals to generate revenue and receive proceeds of ransom from relations of abducted on highways, schools, homes, churches, mosques, marketplaces, and on farmlands.”

Apart from these forms of insecurity, a general gunmen menace embraced the entire 19-state region and the FCT. It is sufficient to say that the terrorists and badits are more emboldened than ever from the Sokoto down to Lake Chad shores in Borno/ Yobe, onto Benue/Plateau, Kastina-Kaduna-Zamfara; now, Niger, the new epicentre of terrorism, and recently Kogi-Kwara states respectively.

The insecurity in Nigeria has become the more you look, the less you see. And one may be tempted to ask: Are they invisible groups of people? Who are the people behind these terrorist groups? What iarethe motives of these people?

This encompassing insecurity began to scare away farmers from their farms over the last two decades to the point of catastrophic reduction of agricultural production that built and defined the Northern economy over the decades.

The Northern economy has now been virtually crushed to inconsequential level with the persistence and worsening of insecurity as the various forms of terror and banditry tighten their grip on the entire region.

North is under siege – ACF bemoan

Speaking in Kaduna, the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF) raised fresh concerns over rising insecurity and humanitarian crises in the North, warning that terrorism, banditry and kidnapping are spreading across states and displacing communities.

Mamman Osuman, the Chairman of ACF, who spoke at the 79th National Executive Council (NEC) meeting of the forum in Kaduna on Wednesday said the region had continued to face “grave difficulties” since its last meeting in August 2025.

“Terrorism, armed banditry, insurgency, and kidnapping are on the rise, as witnessed in Kwara, Southern Kaduna, Katsina, Benue, and other locations. The consequences have been devastating, with families and communities violently uprooted and displaced,” he said.

Osuman noted that the displacements had led to overcrowded camps and informal settlements with limited access to basic services, thereby increasing “the risks of malnutrition and mortality among survivors.”

He added that repeated attacks and the climate of fear had disrupted education and forced school closures in affected areas, while rural economies had been severely strained.

“Insecurity has deepened to such an extent that external military assistance has been required,” he said.

The ACF chairman urged state chapters of the forum to be proactive, stressing that its existence “must not be merely ceremonial or rhetorical; it must be principled, sincere, sacrificial, and action-driven.”

He said the forum must engage constructively with governments at national and subnational levels “in the pursuit of peace, stability, and the civil rehabilitation of our people.”

Osuman also cautioned against political distractions ahead of the 2027 elections, saying some emerging groups were more concerned about political positioning than pressing social challenges.

“This election season has produced convoluted groups whose focus is not on out-of-school children, hunger, poverty, frequent attacks by kidnappers, banditry, or terrorism, but rather on strategies for repositioning ahead of the 2027 elections,” he said.

He urged members to avoid “unnecessary fanfare, sensationalism, and window-dressing events” and instead focus on programmes geared towards “the urgent restoration, survival, and welfare of our people.”

He called on members of the NEC to be sincere and objective in their deliberations, urging them to propose “practical solutions that will guide remedy, recovery, and progress.”

Terrorism in N/Central threatens Nigeria’s political, economic heartland – Olusegun

According to Olusegun Adeniyi, a former President’s spokesman, he wrote his opinion, highlighting that what makes the North Central expansion particularly alarming is the infrastructure already in place.

He said, according to recent research, the Shiroro cell has been operating since at least 2021. Lakurawa has grown to approximately 2,000 members drawn from multiple countries.

These groups have established indoctrination schools, developed financial networks, and created supply chains connecting theatres. They are not coming; they are already here, building capacity while we sleep and make political permutations about a tomorrow not guaranteed.

He recalled, “But there was psychological distance; Borno seemed far away, the Lake Chad Basin felt like another country. The Northwest’s descent into banditry was more proximate, alarming, but still somehow containable in our minds as a regional crisis. But we can no longer pretend that we don’t face a clear and present danger.

He continued, “The North Central zone serves as Nigeria’s strategic hinge, connecting the North to the South. If Jihadist groups consolidate their presence in Kwara State, as they clearly intend to do, they will have achieved what has eluded them in the northeastern insurgency: a strategic position from which to threaten not just Nigeria’s political capital and economic heartland, but our national cohesion.”

Insecurity is affecting businesses, community cohesion, and growth- Bishop Moses

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In northern Nigeria, insecurity is destroying once-bright hopes for education, business, and safe travel. School shutdowns, student abductions, attacks on farmers, and fleeing investors have turned fear into a major barrier to progress and economic growth in the region.

Speaking on the development, Bishop Moses Suberu, the Bishop of the Diocese on the Confluence of the Orthodox Anglican Communion Nigeria, Lokoja, said the North Central Nigeria is heartbeat of Nigerian, underscoring its importance because of its necux between the north and Southern part of country; blessed with fertile soils, diverse peoples, and a rich tapestry of faith communities, has long been a bridge between Nigeria’s north and south.

“I speak from a place of deep spiritual conviction and lived experience in this region that truly pulses as the nation’s heartbeat. Yet, today, it groans under the weight of insecurity perpetrated by outlawed groups—bandits who kidnap, extort, and terrorise.

“Families are forced to pay millions of naira in ransoms to reclaim their loved ones, turning what should be homes of peace into fortresses of fear. Allow me to address your poignant questions with the wisdom drawn from Scripture, our shared humanity, and the urgent realities on the ground,” Bishop Moses

According to him, the scourge of banditry is not merely a security crisis; it is a profound threat to the very fabric of our society, eroding the bonds that hold us together as Nigerians. In Proverbs 14:34, the Bible reminds us that “righteousness exalts a nation, but sin is a reproach to any people.” This evil campaign fosters division along ethnic, religious, and communal lines, as suspicion replaces trust among neighbours.

He pinpointed that “Farmers abandon their fields, leading to food shortages and economic despair that pit communities against one another in competition for scarce resources. Motorists dread highways that were once lifelines of commerce, isolating villages and stifling trade. Worshipers, whether in mosques or churches like those under my ministry, gather in anxiety, wondering if their sacred spaces will become targets. This pervasive fear breeds resentment toward authorities, weakening national unity and encouraging vigilante groups that further fragment society.

Ultimately, if unchecked, this could unravel our cohesion, transforming North Central from Nigeria’s unifying heartbeat into a divided scar, where hope fades, and extremism finds fertile ground. Without collective action, the society’s resilience will crumble, leaving generations scarred by trauma and inequality.

The cleric urged President Tinubu’s Administration to change tactics against terrorists and bandits and bring the insecurity to an end.

“The time for rhetoric has passed; decisive, compassionate action is imperative. Your government has made strides in economic reforms, but security is the foundation upon which all progress stands. Bandits are expanding their operations, from Zamfara’s borders into Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kwara and beyond, turning our region into a theatre of unchecked violence.

“I urge President Tinubu and armed forces to prioritise intelligence-driven operations, community policing, and collaboration with local leaders—including faith-based organisations- to address root causes and invest in technology for surveillance, empower our security forces with better training and equipment, and pursue dialogue where possible to reintegrate those misled into banditry.”He advised.

Decentralisation of police will enhance fight against terror groups- expert

While collaborating, Senator Iroegbu, a security expert, examined how this growing crisis is silencing dreams and what must be done to protect the region’s future.

According to him, the north’s economy is haemorrhaging due to insecurity, and it’s hard to stay optimistic when the situation seems stuck. The military’s efforts are crucial, but more is needed.

He explained, “Leaders must keep speaking out against terrorism and lead the counter-narrative. Collaboration with community leaders, politicians, security agencies, and intelligence is key—but it’s not enough without concrete action from state and federal governments to create safe spaces for businesses.

“A whole-of-society approach is critical: sensitise individuals, businesses, and communities to be security-conscious, volunteer information, and form vigilante groups. Speed up decentralising the police and formalising state and community police,” Senator Iroegbu declared.

Safe markets, farmlands, and public places would reduce criminality- Zagazola

The protracted insurgency and banditry crisis across Northern Nigeria has inflicted unquantifiable losses on the region’s economy, disrupting agriculture, trade, education and investment, even as the military intensifies operations against terrorist and criminal networks.

“From the farmlands of Borno and Yobe to the markets of Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Kebbi and Niger, insecurity has forced thousands of farmers off their land, shut down rural trade routes and crippled cross-border commerce,” said Zagazola Makama, the Lake Chad Basin Counter-insurgency Analyst.

“Livestock production, grain supply and artisanal mining have all suffered, with ripple effects on food prices and employment nationwide.

Zagazola also opined that the economic damage is no longer just local, but the crisis has also affected commercial activities between Niger and neighbouring countries. Local export has also been affected.

He reiterated, “When the North bleeds, the national economy feels it. Agricultural output drops, logistics costs rise, and investors retreat. Insecurity is now a macro-economic risk.”

The military’s sustained offensives under operations such as Hadin Kai and FANSAN YAMMA have degraded the capacity of Boko Haram, ISWAP and bandit groups in several theatres in Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Zamfara, Kaduna, Niger and Sokoto.

“There are reports of increased surrenders, destruction of enclaves and improved coordination with air assets and intelligence agencies.

However, while tactical gains are visible, the conflict has evolved. Armed groups fragment, re-group, and exploit porous borders, local grievances and illicit economies to survive. “We are winning battles, but the war is adaptive, and Victory will not be purely kinetic.

Therefore, addressing the menace requires a whole-of-government approach: real-time intelligence, community trust, technology-driven surveillance, drones, signal interception, and crime mapping must remain central.

“Better fusion between military, police, DSS and civil defence is critical. Stronger border control, joint patrols with neighbours and targeting of arms smuggling, gold and fuel trafficking will starve groups of resources.

“Military gains must be followed by police presence, local administration and basic services to prevent re-infiltration. Deradicalisation, rehabilitation, and reintegration programmes, such as Operation Safe Corridor, should be strengthened to reduce the pool of potential recruits.”He highlighted.

Zagazola further emphasised the need for rapid recovery plans, farm input support, rural roads, irrigation, livestock corridors and market security to restore livelihoods and cut the incentive to join criminal networks.