Two-thirds of Nigerian power plants sit idle despite energy crisis

Nigeria’s chronic electricity shortage has been laid bare by new data showing that the country’s power plants are operating at barely a third of their installed capacity, despite widespread blackouts affecting households and businesses across Africa’s most populous nation.

According to the latest figures from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC), grid-connected power plants with a combined installed capacity of 13,625 megawatts generated an average of just 4,421 megawatt-hours per hour in January 2026, achieving a load factor of only 90 per cent of potential output when available capacity is considered.

More strikingly, the plant availability factor stood at just 36 per cent, meaning nearly two-thirds of Nigeria’s power generation infrastructure sat dormant during the month.

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The country’s total available capacity reached only 4,901MW, less than half of what could theoretically be produced if all plants were operational.

The data reveals a power sector hobbled not by insufficient infrastructure but by operational failures that have persisted despite years of reform efforts and billions of dollars in investment. The gap between installed and available capacity points to chronic issues with gas supply, equipment maintenance, and transmission constraints that continue to plague the sector.

“This is a classic case of resources lying fallow,” said Chinedu Okafor, an energy analyst at Lagos-based consultancy Power Metrics Africa. “Nigeria doesn’t necessarily need more power plants right now. It needs to fix the ones it already has.”

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Among the top energy producers, performance varied dramatically. Ihovbor_2 achieved full utilisation of its available capacity with a 100 per cent plant availability factor, though its installed base of 461MW remains modest.

Meanwhile, Egbin_1, the country’s largest thermal plant with 1,320MW of installed capacity, operated at only 51 per cent availability despite achieving a strong 95 per cent load factor when running.

Several significant plants recorded zero output during January. Afam_1, with 726MW of installed capacity, registered just 7 per cent availability, while both Alaoji_1 (500MW) and Ibom power_1 (190MW) produced no electricity at all during the month.

These idle plants alone represent nearly 1,500MW of wasted potential, enough to power millions of homes.

The underperformance has profound economic consequences for Nigeria, where unreliable electricity supply forces businesses and households to rely on diesel generators, significantly increasing operational costs. The World Bank has estimated that poor power supply costs the Nigerian economy approximately $29bn annually, equivalent to about 2 per cent of GDP.

Gas supply disruptions remain the primary constraint for thermal plants, which dominate Nigeria’s generation mix. Despite the country’s vast natural gas reserves, the largest in Africa, pipeline vandalism, commercial disputes between gas suppliers and power producers, and inadequate gas infrastructure have created a chronic supply bottleneck.

“The gas-to-power value chain remains fundamentally broken,” noted Amina Bello, a former adviser to the Ministry of Power. “Plants cannot generate without fuel, and the commercial framework doesn’t incentivise reliable gas delivery.”

Transmission network limitations compound the problem. Even when power plants are capable of generating electricity, the grid’s capacity to evacuate and distribute that power remains constrained. The Transmission Company of Nigeria has acknowledged that its infrastructure can wheel only about 5,500MW, creating a ceiling on effective generation regardless of available capacity.

The performance data comes as Nigeria’s government faces mounting pressure to address the electricity crisis, which has intensified in recent months.

President Bola Tinubu’s administration has pledged to increase power generation to 10,000MW by 2025, though that target now appears increasingly out of reach given current utilisation rates.

Reform efforts have included recent moves toward decentralisation, with states gaining more autonomy over electricity regulation and distribution. However, progress has been slow, and the fundamental challenges of financing, gas supply, and transmission capacity remain largely unresolved.

The January figures suggest that even modest improvements in plant availability could yield significant gains. If Nigeria’s existing power plants could achieve a 60 per cent availability factor, still below international standards but substantially better than current performance, the country could add approximately 3,000MW to the grid without constructing a single new facility.