$20bn Bonga revival offers lifeline to five idle oil assets

…580,000 bpd output at stake

…Tinubu’s team among best we deal with- Shell’s global CEO

Shell’s $20 billion commitment to Nigeria’s Bonga field represents the single largest foreign direct investment bet on African energy in a generation.

But Bonga cannot be Nigeria’s only deepwater revival story. The country’s offshore acreage contains dozens of stranded assets, discovered fields with proven reserves that can deliver about 580,000 bpd but remain undeveloped due to rising costs, regulatory uncertainty and prolonged fiscal disputes.

These big-ticket projects include: Zabazaba 150,000 bpd; Chevron Nsiko project,100,000 bpd; Exxonmobil’s Bosi; 140,000 bpd; Satellite Field development phase, 80,000 bpd and Ude 110,000 bpd.

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Each represents billions in potential investment and thousands of jobs. Each requires the same regulatory clarity and fiscal stability that Shell demanded before committing to Bonga. And each tests whether Nigeria’s current reforms represent systemic change or merely relationship-driven exceptions.

“This is about more than Bonga,” said a senior energy executive in Lagos, who requested anonymity. “Shell is essentially saying that Nigeria is open for serious business again. That message resonates across every boardroom from Houston to London.”

The Tinubu factor

President Bola Tinubu didn’t inherit a clean slate when he took office. He inherited a graveyard of stalled mega-projects, a regulatory environment that made investors pull their hair out, and an industry waiting for someone, anyone, to make hard decisions rather than deliver platitudes about ‘investment-friendly reforms.’

The former Lagos state governor recognises that global investments go to places they were welcomed the most, something his predecessor wouldn’t.

The president established direct communication channels with Wael Sawan, Shell’s CEO, the company’s first Lebanese chief executive and its first leader from outside traditional Dutch or British backgrounds.

Those conversations, industry sources say, helped build confidence that Nigeria’s notoriously bureaucratic approval processes would no longer strangle major projects.

“The competition for investment is global,” Bayo Ojulari, group chief executive of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, acknowledged, noting that energy companies continuously evaluate options across competing jurisdictions, including Guyana and parts of the Far East.

He added, “One of the great things that the President did was to announce those executive orders to put additional incentives in place to attract investments.”

Shell alumni network

Beyond the executive orders, Tinubu also understands that international oil companies have heard reform promises before, only to watch them dissolve amid political transitions or revenue pressures.

He placed former Shell executives in critical energy positions and dismantled the bureaucratic obstacles that drove international operators toward exits rather than expansions.

These two key figures, Ojulari and Olu Verheijen, are Shell alumni who worked directly under both Peter Costello, Shell’s exploration chief, and Sawan himself during his previous roles.

Read also: Five ways Nigeria can access $20bn from Shell via Bonga Southwest

“You cannot overstate the importance of having people who understand Shell’s decision-making culture, its risk frameworks, and its capital allocation process sitting on the government side,” said a former international oil company executive now consulting in West Africa. “They know exactly what boxes need checking for a project of this magnitude to get approved in The Hague.”

Tinubu’s team among the best we deal with – Shell CEO

Wael Sawan, chief executive of Shell Plc, praised Tinubu’s leadership for creating a healthy climate for investments to thrive and restoring investor confidence.

He also commended the President’s team, describing them as outstanding professionals.

“And that leadership, I would also say, has put many of the people that we are working with, your team, are amongst the best that we are dealing with anywhere in the world, and that professionalism allows us to be able to have the confidence, and I would say our partners as well, to have the confidence to continue to invest,” he said at a meeting with President Tinubu at the Presidential Villa.

Sawan stated that the corporation is committed to long-term investments in the country, underscoring the stable economic environment.

Speaking on the expansion of Shell’s investments in Nigeria, Sawan said the corporation has also deepened its interest in Block OML 118, the Bonga Block.

“Total Energies was selling, so we bought it because we want to deepen further. But that, we think, is not enough. We think there is more to invest here, and we understand the vision that you have for the country,” he said.

“This will be one of the biggest, I would say, energy projects in the world.”

The Renaissance backstory

Understanding Shell’s Bonga decision requires examining the Renaissance deal that nearly derailed it. When Shell announced plans to exit its Nigerian onshore operations through a sale to the Renaissance consortium, the transaction became mired in regulatory review under the watch of Gbenga Komolafe, the inaugural chief executive officer of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).

While Shell executives publicly maintained diplomatic silence, privately they made it clear: No Renaissance approval, no Bonga billions, according to sources who spoke to BusinessDay.

The prolonged uncertainty frustrated Shell executives in London and The Hague, who viewed the delays as emblematic of Nigeria’s unpredictable business environment. Some within the company advocated for redirecting Bonga-earmarked capital to more stable jurisdictions like Brazil or Guyana.

Komolafe’s exit, while officially unrelated to the Renaissance matter, removed an alleged perceived obstacle just as Tinubu’s team intensified efforts to demonstrate Nigeria’s new investment readiness. Within weeks, the Bonga revival gained momentum.

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Nigeria’s energy sector

Ojulari believes that Shell’s investment extends beyond hydrocarbon production. Such developments, he said, typically generate employment across fabrication, construction, maintenance and supply chain operations over the 20- to 30-year productive lifespan of oil and gas fields.

“For many years, fabrication yards have been idle because there were no projects. Those yards will come back to life,” Ojulari stated, highlighting the revival of dormant industrial infrastructure that would create sustained employment opportunities for Nigerian workers and businesses.

The NNPCL chief noted that while the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) of 2021 established a foundational legal framework, additional targeted incentives proved necessary to ensure Nigeria remained competitive in attracting scarce global energy capital.

“We needed those executive orders to adjust and fine-tune the competitive position of Nigeria,” Ojulari said, characterising the policy adjustments as essential to countering rival jurisdictions’ own incentive packages.

Beyond Bonga

While Shell’s Bonga commitment dominates headlines, energy sector insiders argue the real test is whether this breakthrough unlocks a pipeline of similarly stranded mega-projects.

Five developments in particular could transform Nigeria’s production profile if regulatory and fiscal certainty holds: Chevron’s Zabazaba field, capable of producing 150,000 bpd, has languished in regulatory limbo despite technical readiness. The American major has repeatedly signaled willingness to proceed if it receives the same clarity Shell apparently now enjoys.