Upping the ante of Nigeria’s gas ambition (part 1)

This is a two-part article on a revised Nigerian gas ambition and is a follow-up on last week’s article titled “Update on the global natural gas and LNG market”, essentially meant to provide background information for assessing Nigeria’s gas development programme vis-à-vis other gas-producing and exporting countries with a view to seeking the way forward in the decade ahead.

Nigeria’s proven gas reserves – 210.54 trillion cubic feet (tcf) – are Africa’s largest and the eighth largest in the world. The reserves represent 3 percent of the world’s proven gas reserves and 33 percent of Africa’s and are expected to last for 90 years. In addition, Nigeria has unproven/potential gas reserves of 600 tcf.

Current production is about 8 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), according to the Nigeria Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), which will make Nigeria probably the second largest gas producer in Africa, after Algeria, with Egypt coming third. However, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, Nigeria produced 5-6 bcf/d of gas in 2024, ranking 15th globally, while Egypt also produced 5-6 bcf/d, ranking 16th after Nigeria.  Nigeria has experienced volatility or fluctuation in its gas production in recent times.  Based on 2021-2022 data from the Nigeria Gas Association, Nigeria reportedly dropped from its previous position of 10th largest gas producer globally (which requires confirmation) in the previous years to 20th position due to underinvestment, infrastructure deficits and gas flaring. However, due to more focused policies and more aggressive efforts arising from Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” (2021-2030) initiative, Nigeria’s ranking has risen to between 12th and 19th globally, which is in line with the IEA data above, ranking Nigeria as the 15th largest global gas producer in 2024.

Nigeria’s overarching strategic goal should be to be among the top ten gas-producing nations in the world, in line with its being among the top ten countries with the largest gas deposits globally. Nigeria is currently ranked as the country with the 8th largest proven gas reserves. Due to the relatively finite nature of gas reserves, that position may not change much in the next ten years. But not so with global gas production ranking, which depends on investment in gas production both for local consumption and export and investment in pipelines and liquefaction (LNG) for export.

“Ironically, during the first two years of the DoG initiative (2021-2023), gas production in Nigeria actually faltered due to pipeline vandalism, oil theft and the poor business and investment environment, which drove away foreign investors and hampered local investors.”

Nigeria’s “Decade of Gas” (DoG) initiative was extensively reviewed in my article of December 15, 2025, titled “The Decade of Gas Initiative: A Review.” The key elements of the DoG initiative are as follows:  the gas infrastructure development plan, the policy reforms and regulatory framework, the gas export expansion plan, the expansion of gas to power utilisation, the expanded adoption of gas utilisation for homes in the push for clean energy, the use of natural gas to power industrialisation, and massive investment in human capital development.

The initiative has four pillars: 1) Supply: expanding gas supply through new projects, unlocking reserves and increasing production; 2) Infrastructure: expanding critical infrastructure like the Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) and the Obiafu-Obrikom-Oben (OB3), processing plants and distribution networks to connect gas markets; 3) Pricing: supporting and instituting market-based pricing mechanisms to encourage investment flow to major gas projects and enthroning a corresponding fiscal framework; and 4) Utilisation/Domestic Use: expanding and deepening domestic use of gas for industrialisation, power generation, transportation and domestic consumption.

However, it should be noted that these four pillars were not part of the original DoG initiative, as would be found on its website, http://decadeofgas.com.ng. The Decade of Gas initiative is actually a framework for a 10-year development plan for the gas sector in Nigeria.  But there is no programme document as such, and the information available on the initiative’s website is rather scanty, lacking the details and depth of a properly conceived and framed development plan or agenda for a sector as vital to the Nigerian economy as gas. There is no downloadable PDF document of the DoG anywhere on the Internet, which limits accessibility to the document by vital stakeholders, especially local and international investors, even as limited in content as it is. It is not clear whether adequate consultations were made with various stakeholders and organisations in the local and international gas ecosystem that would have led to a more robust and comprehensive plan document.

The following information provided in my article of December 15, 2025, on expected investment targets by 2030 under the Decade of Gas is also not on the DoG website but is the result of the current Administration’s laudable effort to actualise the DoG initiative: “Some of the more specific objectives include attracting up to US$30 billion into the gas sector during the period, including 70 new gas projects out of 200 that have been selected in the last 18 months and are expected to attract $20 billion.”

The DoG website states thus: “The Decade of Gas initiative, launched in 2021, is focused on transforming Nigeria into a gas-powered economy by 2030 through a series of policy reforms, gas supply project maturation, gas infrastructure expansion, capacity building and robust investment attraction strategies.” However, nowhere on the website is there an investment plan or any global sum mentioned as an investment target from both local investors, including NNPCL, and international oil majors, among others.

The Decade of Gas website generally lacks specifics on the initiative. One of the few specific details is that “20 projects/fields have been identified that could contribute about 4.6 BCFD within the decade.” Though there is a projection that Nigeria’s gas production will double by 2030, no mention is made of from what level of gas production to what level. The information provided on the DoG website does not, from a strategic perspective, compare where gas production in Nigeria was in 2021 with that of our two major African peers, Algeria and Egypt, with where it is envisaged for Nigeria to be in 2030, relative to where they also plan to be in 2030. Ironically, during the first two years of the DoG initiative (2021-2023), gas production in Nigeria actually faltered due to pipeline vandalism, oil theft and the poor business and investment environment, which drove away foreign investors and hampered local investors.

This is where the remarkable achievements of the Tinubu Administration in implementing the DoG vision in the last two years and three quarters need to be commended. There has been a significant turnaround in the oil and gas sector that has led to the realisation of about $8 billion of investment, and significantly more billions are expected to be invested by both local and international oil and gas companies in the years ahead, which are expected to impact investment and production in the Nigerian gas sector tremendously. Mr Wale Edun, Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, recently said Nigeria hopes to achieve 10 billion cubic feet of gas per day (bcf/d) by 2030. This appears realisable, as Nigeria has already achieved a minimum of 7.5 bcf/d.

However, while not in any way underrating the huge effort currently ongoing to reposition gas production in Nigeria, the target of 10 bcf/d can even be exceeded with an increased impetus. Nigeria needs to realise that it currently produces only 1% to 1.5% of its proven gas reserves, which are the 8th largest in the world. Thus, with a grossly underdeveloped gas sector, Nigeria needs to draw inspiration and challenges from countries like Algeria, Qatar and Saudi Arabia that have for decades been aggressively developing their gas sectors. Thus, Nigeria needs a radically revised and upgraded gas development plan. With Saudi Arabia, the 8th largest gas producer in the world, producing about 19.1 bcfd in 2024, Nigeria should aim for a revised 10-year development plan to produce 20 bcfd by 2035. That still puts the country behind Algeria, which aims to achieve that target by 2030. Only Nigeria can limit its gas ambition in the next ten years.

 

Mr Igbinoba is Team Lead/CEO at ProServe Options Consulting, Lagos.